Empirical Laws and Foreseeing the Future of Technological Progress

Lopes, António M.; Machado, J.A.Tenreiro; Galhano, Alexandra M.

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/9451

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Authors

Lopes, António M.

Machado, J.A.Tenreiro

Galhano, Alexandra M.

Abstract(s)

The Moore’s law (ML) is one of many empirical expressions that is used to characterize natural and artificial phenomena. The ML addresses technological progress and is expected to predict future trends. Yet, the “art” of predicting is often confused with the accurate fitting of trendlines to past events. Presently, data-series of multiple sources are available for scientific and computational processing. The data can be described by means of mathematical expressions that, in some cases, follow simple expressions and empirical laws. However, the extrapolation toward the future is considered with skepticism by the scientific community, particularly in the case of phenomena involving complex behavior. This paper addresses these issues in the light of entropy and pseudo-state space. The statistical and dynamical techniques lead to a more assertive perspective on the adoption of a given candidate law.