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- Portfolio Optimization for Electricity Market Participation with NPSO-LRSPublication . Faia, R.; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, ZitaMassive changes in electricity markets have occurred during the last years, as a consequence of the massive introduction of renewable energies. These changes have led to a restructuring process that had an impact throughout the electrical industry. The case of the electricity markets is a relevant example, where new forms of trading emerged and new market entities were created. With these changes, the complexity of electricity markets increased as well, which brought out the need from the involved players for adequate support to their decision making process. Artificial intelligence plays an important role in the development of these tools. Multi-agent systems, in particular, have been largely explored by stakeholders in the sector. Artificial intelligence also provides intelligent solutions for optimization, which enable troubleshooting in a short time and with very similar results to those achieved by deterministic techniques, which usually result from very high execution times. The work presented in this paper aims at solving a portfolio optimization problem for electricity markets participation, using an approach based on NPSO-LRS (New Particle Swarm Optimization with Local Random Search). The proposed method is used to assist decisions of electricity market players.
- Demonstration of an Energy Consumption Forecasting System for Energy Management in BuildingsPublication . Jozi, Aria; Ramos, Daniel; Gomes, Luis; Faria, Pedro; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, ZitaDue to the increment of the energy consumption and dependency of the nowadays lifestyle to the electrical appliances, the essential role of an energy management system in the buildings is realized more than ever. With this motivation, predicting energy consumption is very relevant to support the energy management in buildings. In this paper, the use of an energy management system supported by forecasting models applied to energy consumption prediction is demonstrated. The real-time automatic forecasting system is running separately but integrated with the existing SCADA system. Nine different forecasting approaches to obtain the most reliable estimated energy consumption of the building during the following hours are implemented.
- Customized Normalization Method to Enhance the Clustering Process of Consumption ProfilesPublication . Ribeiro, Catarina; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, ZitaThe restructuring of electricity markets brought many changes to markets operation. To overcome these new challenges, the study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance.With the emergence of microgrids and smart grids, new business models able to cope with new opportunities are being developed. New types of players are also emerging, allowing aggregating a diversity of entities, e.g. generation, storage, electric vehicles, and consumers. The virtual power player (VPP) facilitates their participation in the electricity markets and provides a set of new services promoting generation and consumption efficiency, while improving players` benefits. The contribution of this paper is a customized normalization method that supports a clustering methodology for the remuneration and tariffs definition from VPPs. To implement fair and strategic remuneration and tariff methodologies, this model uses a clustering algorithm, applied on normalized load values, which creates sub-groups of data according to their correlations. The clustering process is evaluated so that the number of data sub-groups that brings the most added value for the decision making process is found, according to players characteristics. The proposed clustering methodology has been tested in a real distribution network with 30 bus, including residential and commercial consumers, photovoltaic generation and storage.
- Distributed Intelligent Management of Microgrids using a Multi-Agent Simulation PlatformPublication . Gomes, Luis; Pinto, Tiago; Faria, Pedro; Vale, ZitaMulti-agent approaches have been widely used to model complex systems of distributed nature with a large amount of interactions between the involved entities. Power systems are a reference case, mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources, which have potentiated huge changes in the power systems’ sector. Dealing with such a large scale integration of intermittent generation sources led to the emergence of several new players, as well as the development of new paradigms, such as the microgrid concept, and the evolution of demand response programs, which potentiate the active participation of consumers. This paper presents a multi-agent based simulation platform which models a microgrid environment, considering several different types of simulated players. These players interact with real physical installations, creating a realistic simulation environment with results that can be observed directly in the reality. A case study is presented considering players’ responses to a demand response event, resulting in an intelligent increase of consumption in order to face the wind generation surplus.
- Automated combination of bilateral energy contracts negotiation tacticsPublication . Pinto, Angelo; Pinto, Tiago; Silva, Francisco; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita; Corchado, Juan ManuelThis paper addresses the theme automated bilateral negotiation of energy contracts. In this work, the automatic combination between different negotiation tactics is proposed. This combination is done dynamically throughout the negotiation process, as result from the online assessment that is performed after each proposal and counter-proposal. The proposed method is integrated in a decision support system for bilateral negotiations, called Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiations (DECON), which in turn is integrated with the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM). This integration enables testing and validating the proposed methodology in a realistic market negotiation environment. A case study is presented, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed approach.
- Reserve costs allocation model for energy and reserve market simulationPublication . Pinto, Tiago; Gazafroudi, Amin Shokri; Prieto-Castrillo, Francisco; Santos, Gabriel; Silva, Francisco; Corchado, Juan Manuel; Vale, ZitaThis paper proposes a new model to allocate reserve costs among the involved players, considering the characteristics of the several entities, and the particular circumstances at each moment. The proposed model is integrated in the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM), which enables complementing the multi-agent simulation of diverse electricity market models, by including the joint simulation of energy and reserve markets. In this context, the proposed model allows allocating the payment of reserve costs that result from the reserve market. A simulation based on real data from the Iberian electricity market - MIBEL, is presented. Simulation results show the advantages of the proposed model in sharing the reserve costs fairly and accordingly to the different circumstances. This work thus contributes the study of novel market models towards the evolution of power and energy systems by adapting current models to the new paradigm of high penetration of renewable energy generation.
- Clustering-based negotiation profiles definition for local energy transactionsPublication . Pinto, Angelo; Pinto, Tiago; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita; Faria, PedroElectricity markets are complex and dynamic environments, mostly due to the large scale integration of renewable energy sources in the system. Negotiation in these markets is a significant challenge, especially when considering negotiations at the local level (e.g., between buildings and distributed energy resources). It is essential for a negotiator to be able to identify the negotiation profile of the players with whom he is negotiating. If a negotiator knows these profiles, it is possible to adapt the negotiation strategy and get better results in a negotiation. In order to identify and define such negotiation profiles, a clustering process is proposed in this paper. The clustering process is performed using the kml-k-means algorithm, in which several negotiation approaches are evaluated in order to identify and define players' negotiation profiles. A case study is presented, using as input data, information from proposals made during a set of negotiations. Results show that the proposed approach is able to identify players' negotiation profiles used in bilateral negotiations in electricity markets.
- Electricity Markets Simulation: MASCEM Contributions to the Challenging RealityPublication . Vale, Zita; Morais, H.; Pinto, Tiago; Praça, Isabel; Ramos, CarlosElectricity Markets are not only a new reality but an evolving one as the involved players and rules change at a relatively high rate. Multi-agent simulation combined with Artificial Intelligence techniques may result in sophisticated tools very helpful under this context. Some simulation tools have already been developed, some of them very interesting. However, at the present state it is important to go a step forward in Electricity Markets simulators as this is crucial for facing changes in Power Systems. This paper explains the context and needs of electricity market simulation, describing the most important characteristics of available simulators. We present our work concerning MASCEM simulator, presenting its features as well as the improvements being made to accomplish the change and challenging reality of Electricity Markets.
- GA Optimization Technique for Portfolio Optimization of Electricity Market ParticipationPublication . Faia, Ricardo; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, ZitaThis paper presents a methodology based on genetic Algorithms (GA) to solve the problem of optimal participation in multiple electricity markets. With the emergence of new requirements for electrical power markets, it has become fundamental to develop tools to aid in decision making, understanding the functioning of markets and forecast iterations that occur between the different entities in the market. Artificial intelligence plays a crucial role in the development of these tools. Using artificial intelligence techniques, it is possible to simulate the different existing players in the market, to enable these players to be adaptive to any situation, and to model any type of trading. Artificial intelligence based metaheuristic optimization tools allow solving problems in a short time, and with very close results to those that deterministic techniques are able to achieve, at the cost of a high execution time. The achieved results, using a simulation scenario based on real data from the Iberian electricity market, show that the proposed method is able to reach better results than previous implementations of a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and a Simulated Annealing (SA) methods, while achieving very similar objective function results to those of a deterministic approach, in a much faster execution time.
- Day-ahead electricity market price forecasting using artificial neural network with spearman data correlationPublication . Nascimento, Joao; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, ZitaElectricity markets are complex environments with very dynamic characteristics. The large-scale penetration of renewable energy sources has brought an increased uncertainty to generation, which is consequently, reflected in electricity market prices. In this way, novel advanced forecasting methods that are able to predict electricity market prices taking into account the new variables that influence prices variation are required. This paper proposes a new model for day-ahead electricity market prices forecasting based on the application of an artificial neural network. The main novelty of this paper relates to the pre-processing phase, in which the relevant data referring to the different variables that have a direct influence on market prices such as generation, temperature, consumption, among others, is analysed. The association between these variables is performed using spearman correlation, from which results the identification of which data has a larger influence on the market prices variation. This pre-analysis is then used to adapt the training process of the artificial neural network, leading to improved forecasting results, by using the most relevant data in an appropriate way.