ISCAP - Matemática - Pósteres apresentados em eventos científicos
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- Birth rate in PortugalPublication . Guerra, Maria; Pessoa, Ana; Rodrigues, Ana; Mesquita, Maria; Babo, Lurdes; Vieira, Isabel; Lopes, Isabel Cristina; Torres, CristinaThis paper presents a study on the birth rate in Portugal. The quantitative data analysis of 308 municipalities concludes that the variables “live births of mothers residing in Portugal with Portuguese and foreign nationality”, “fertility rate of the various age groups”, “live births of mothers residing in Portugal according to their level of education” and “births by gender” are strongly correlated, presenting common factors that significantly influence the birth rate.
- Depopulation of Portugal’s interiorPublication . Suavinha, Bárbara; Alves, Maria; Magalhães, Marta; Babo, Lurdes; Torres, Cristina; Vieira, Isabel; Lopes, Isabel CristinaThe depopulation of Portugal’s interior presents a crucial socio-demographic challenge, manifesting in widening disparities between major cities and inland regions. This study examines factors influencing depopulation in Portuguese municipalities, using data from PORDATA (2022). Through Linear Discriminant Analysis on twenty quantitative variables spanning education, demographics, health, and employment, municipalities are categorised by population density. The analysis reveals significant differences between groups across all variables, reinforcing the differentiation by population density. The model achieves a 71.2% correct classification rate, highlighting education and health variables as pivotal contributors to group discrimination.
- The Relationship of the Human Capital Index with the Level of Education and the Adult Survival RatePublication . Marques, Alexandra; Pinheiro, Ana; Matos, Maria Carolina; Torres, Cristina; Lopes, Isabel Cristina; Vieira, IsabelThe relationship between the level of education and the adult survival rate with the human capital index and its components is studied using cluster analysis, applied to a sample of 174 countries covering all continents. The results allow the grouping of countries into three clusters that are consistent with three different levels of development. It was also observed that the lower the values of survival rate and level of education, the lower the human capital index of a country is.
- Monte Carlo na Avaliação de Opções AmericanasPublication . babo, lurdes; Silva, Eduarda; Areal, NelsonA determinação do preço justo de um contrato de opções, trouxe enormes desa os a diversos ramos da Matemática procurando desenvolver e aperfeiçoar modelos e métodos que melhor representem os comportamentos dos mercados nanceiros. A avaliação de opções americanas apresenta uma di culdade acrescida, uma vez que é necessário determinar uma estratégia óptima ao seu exercício antecipado, já que estas opções podem ser exercidas em qualquer momento até à sua maturidade. Investigações recentes mostram que metodologias baseadas em técnicas de simulação podem ser usadas com sucesso neste tipo de opções (Duan and Simonato (2001), Longsta and Schwartz (2001), Stentoft (2005)). Neste trabalho, usamos métodos de Monte Carlo para avaliar opções Americanas, recorrendo à abordagem sugerida por Longsta and Schwartz (2001), combinando modelos GARCH para o subjacente com Filtered Historical Simulation (Barone, Engle and Mancini (2008)).