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Available studies and reports, as well as real-time experiences, attest to profound, extensive, long-lasting effects on the supply chain caused by the pandemic. It is thus paramount to rethink the supply chain for medication and health care supplies to build a more resilient and adaptable management process. Data obtained from the NHS portal monthly reports from January 2017 to August 2020 – indicates that at the hospital level the impact was felt the most on the scheduling of medical appointments and prescriptions. Two forecasting methods were selected for this study: Simple Linear Regression and Holt-Winters with the trend and additive seasonality. There was a change in the behavior of hospital patients in the first year of COVID-19 pandemics. This change was shown in two main indicators, the number of hospital consultations and medication expenses. This changed behavior resulted in a decrease in demand for scheduled hospital services, 1.9M less than would be expected under normal conditions, and a foreseeable increase of €432M in the consumption of medicines in the last quarter of 2020, €103M more than in the same period. from the previous year.
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Palavras-chave
COVID-19 Supply chain Consumer behavior Forecast methods