| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.38 MB | Adobe PDF |
Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Este relatório apresenta o estudo efetuado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia e Gestão
Industrial desenvolvido na empresa Coindu S.A. As principais etapas de industrialização de
artigos/coleções de marroquinaria foram identificadas e descritas. As atividades foram organizadas
de forma sequencial e o caminho crítico foi identificado. Foi efetuada uma análise de risco
qualitativa a cada atividade. Na totalidade foram identificados 140 riscos dos quais 43 % foram de
risco baixo, 37 % de risco médio, 15% de risco alto e 5% de risco crítico. O intervalo tolerável de
risco (threshold) no qual o projeto tem de operar foi definido pelos stakeholders com base na regra
de Pareto. Foram definidas estratégias de gestão para os riscos que se encontravam fora do
intervalo definido e descritas medidas de gestão dos riscos. O caminho crítico, a análise de risco
qualitativa, e a experiência dos elementos associados ao projeto, foram utilizados nas análises de
risco quantitativas para os objetivos de tempo e custo. As análises de risco quantitativas foram
concretizadas utilizando um software open source (Davis, 2022) e tiveram como base a metodologia
Statistical PERT e a simulação de Monte Carlo. A análise de risco quantitativa recorrendo à
metodologia Statistical PERT para o objetivo temporal indica que a industrialização de um
artigo/coleção tem uma duração de 196,3 dias úteis para um intervalo de confiança de 95 %. Para
o mesmo intervalo de confiança, mas utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo é-nos indicada uma
duração de 199,1 dias úteis. Dado a duração total do projeto a diferença entre ambas foi
considerada não significativa. A duração da industrialização de acordo com o caminho crítico é de
129,6 dias, um valor otimista quando comparado com as análises de risco quantitativas mais
realistas e pessimistas que têm em consideração a incerteza inerente a cada atividade. Para
artigos/coleções permanentes a duração da industrialização não é crítica, servindo apenas como
um elemento de tomada de decisão e planeamento da mesma. Os artigos/coleções sazonais têm
um período de 60 a 110 dias para serem industrializados. Estas durações de acordo com as análises
de risco quantitativas efetuadas são apenas alcançadas com níveis de confiança de 0,9% e 19%,
respetivamente. Caso o artigo/coleção sazonal seja industrializado de raiz há um risco considerável
de ter uma duração superior à pretendida. Este ponto deve ser tido em consideração no
enquadramento global do projeto de modo a cumprir com as expetativas do cliente. A análise de
risco quantitativa revelou que o custo de industrialização/desenvolvimento de um artigo é cerca de
7177,11€ quando implementada a metodologia SPERT e um custo de 7071.49€ quando utilizada a
simulação de Monte Carlo ambos para um nível de confiança de 95%. Confirmou-se novamente
que o caminho crítico é otimista quando comparado com as metodologias consideradas, colocando
o valor da industrialização de um artigo em 6377,20€. O valor obtido com o caminho crítico é
apenas alcançado quando considerando níveis de confiança em ambas as metodologias inferiores
a 50%. Verificou-se que para um nível de confiança de 95% a atividade 25 representa 68% do custo
de industrialização total. Esta atividade deve ser considerada como crítica, representando a decisão
da encomenda das matérias-primas para a produção da SMS. A metodologia SPERT revelou ser
fiável não sucedendo o merge event bias que ocorre quando existem múltiplos caminhos paralelos
que podem ser quase críticos. Com as metodologias adotadas é possível efetuar um planeamento
de industrialização associado a um custo que pode ser atualizado e adaptado em qualquer etapa,
permitindo assim um maior controlo sobre os riscos inerentes à industrialização de artigos
This report presents the study carried out within the scope of the Master in Industrial Engineering and Management developed at the company Coindu S.A. The main stages of industrialization of leather goods/collections were identified and described. The activities were organized sequentially and the critical path was identified. A qualitative risk analysis was performed for each activity. In total, 140 risks were identified, of which 43% were low risk, 37% medium risk, 15% high risk and 5% critical risk. The tolerable risk range (threshold) in which the project has to operate was defined by stakeholders based on Pareto's rule. Management strategies were defined for risks that were outside the defined range and risk management measures were described. Critical path, qualitative risk analysis, and experience of elements associated with the project were used in quantitative risk analysis for time and cost objectives. Quantitative risk analyses were carried out using open source software (Davis, 2022) and were based on the Statistical PERT methodology and Monte Carlo simulation. Quantitative risk analysis using the Statistical PERT methodology for the temporal objective and indicates that the industrialization of an article/collection takes 196,3 working days for a confidence interval of 95%. For the same confidence interval, but using the Monte Carlo simulation, we are given a duration of 199.1 working days. Given the total duration of the project, the difference between the two was considered non-significant. The duration of industrialization according to the critical path is 132.6 days, an optimistic value when compared to the more realistic and pessimistic quantitative risk analyses that take into account the uncertainty inherent in each activity. For permanent articles/collections, the duration of industrialization is not critical, serving only as a decision-making and planning element. Seasonal items/collections have a period of 60 to 110 days to be industrialized. These durations according to the quantitative risk analyses performed are only achieved with confidence levels of 0.9% and 19%, respectively. If the seasonal item/collection is industrialized from scratch, there is a considerable risk that it will last longer than intended. This point must be taken into account in the overall framework of the project in order to meet the client's expectations. The quantitative risk analysis revealed that the cost of industrialization/development of an article is around 7177,11€ when the SPERT methodology is implemented and a cost of 7071,49€ when using the Monte Carlo simulation, both for a confidence level of 95%. It was confirmed again that the critical path is optimistic when compared to the methodologies considered, placing the value of the industrialization of an article at 6377.20€. The value obtained with the critical path is only reached when considering confidence levels in both methodologies below 50%. It was found that for a confidence level of 95%, activity 25 represents 68% of the total industrialization cost. This activity must be considered as critical, representing the decision to order the raw materials for the production of the SMS. The SPERT methodology proved to be reliable without the merge event bias that occurs when there are multiple parallel paths that can be almost critical. With the methodologies adopted, it is possible to carry out an industrialization planning associated with a cost that can be updated and adapted at any stage. Thus allowing greater control over the risks inherent in the industrialization of articles
This report presents the study carried out within the scope of the Master in Industrial Engineering and Management developed at the company Coindu S.A. The main stages of industrialization of leather goods/collections were identified and described. The activities were organized sequentially and the critical path was identified. A qualitative risk analysis was performed for each activity. In total, 140 risks were identified, of which 43% were low risk, 37% medium risk, 15% high risk and 5% critical risk. The tolerable risk range (threshold) in which the project has to operate was defined by stakeholders based on Pareto's rule. Management strategies were defined for risks that were outside the defined range and risk management measures were described. Critical path, qualitative risk analysis, and experience of elements associated with the project were used in quantitative risk analysis for time and cost objectives. Quantitative risk analyses were carried out using open source software (Davis, 2022) and were based on the Statistical PERT methodology and Monte Carlo simulation. Quantitative risk analysis using the Statistical PERT methodology for the temporal objective and indicates that the industrialization of an article/collection takes 196,3 working days for a confidence interval of 95%. For the same confidence interval, but using the Monte Carlo simulation, we are given a duration of 199.1 working days. Given the total duration of the project, the difference between the two was considered non-significant. The duration of industrialization according to the critical path is 132.6 days, an optimistic value when compared to the more realistic and pessimistic quantitative risk analyses that take into account the uncertainty inherent in each activity. For permanent articles/collections, the duration of industrialization is not critical, serving only as a decision-making and planning element. Seasonal items/collections have a period of 60 to 110 days to be industrialized. These durations according to the quantitative risk analyses performed are only achieved with confidence levels of 0.9% and 19%, respectively. If the seasonal item/collection is industrialized from scratch, there is a considerable risk that it will last longer than intended. This point must be taken into account in the overall framework of the project in order to meet the client's expectations. The quantitative risk analysis revealed that the cost of industrialization/development of an article is around 7177,11€ when the SPERT methodology is implemented and a cost of 7071,49€ when using the Monte Carlo simulation, both for a confidence level of 95%. It was confirmed again that the critical path is optimistic when compared to the methodologies considered, placing the value of the industrialization of an article at 6377.20€. The value obtained with the critical path is only reached when considering confidence levels in both methodologies below 50%. It was found that for a confidence level of 95%, activity 25 represents 68% of the total industrialization cost. This activity must be considered as critical, representing the decision to order the raw materials for the production of the SMS. The SPERT methodology proved to be reliable without the merge event bias that occurs when there are multiple parallel paths that can be almost critical. With the methodologies adopted, it is possible to carry out an industrialization planning associated with a cost that can be updated and adapted at any stage. Thus allowing greater control over the risks inherent in the industrialization of articles
Description
Keywords
Marroquinaria Planeamento Gestão de risco Statistical PERT Simulação de Monte Carlo Leather Goods Planning Risk Management Statistical PERT Monte Carlo Simulation