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Resumo(s)
Os efeitos das tarifas impostas pelos Estados Unidos à China, ao abrigo da Secção 301 do Trade Act, sobre as importações norte-americanas, no período de 2016 a 2024. A investigação procura responder a três questões centrais: qual a magnitude do impacto das tarifas sobre as importações chinesas; como evoluiu este efeito ao longo do tempo; e em que medida se verificou desvio de comércio para mercados alternativos.
A metodologia adotada é de natureza quantitativa, baseando-se em dados de comércio internacional da U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), ao nível desagregado HTS-10. A análise empírica recorre a um modelo de Diferenças-em-Diferenças, comparando a evolução das importações norte-americanas provenientes da China (grupo de tratamento) com as provenientes do México, Vietname e Taiwan (grupo de comparação).
Os resultados evidenciam um impacto negativo e estatisticamente significativo das tarifas sobre as importações americanas provenientes da China, com uma redução média estimada de 39%, atingindo 45% nos produtos sujeitos à tarifa máxima de 25%. A análise dinâmica revela que este efeito não foi imediato, intensificando-se progressivamente até atingir uma redução implícita de 54% em 2024, o que sugere uma reconfiguração estrutural e duradoura dos fluxos comerciais. A análise da resposta dos mercados alternativos mostra-se fortemente heterogénea: enquanto o Vietname (+37%) cumpriu o padrão clássico de substituição, o México (-8%) e Taiwan (-11%) revelaram padrões de contágio, evidenciando a importância da estrutura produtiva e da integração em cadeias de valor globais na propagação dos efeitos das tarifas.
Conclui-se que a guerra comercial entre as duas economias não produziu apenas uma contração do comércio bilateral, mas também uma reconfiguração setorial e geográfica das importações dos Estados Unidos. A investigação contribui para a literatura empírica ao estender a análise até 2024 e ao documentar a heterogeneidade da resposta dos países terceiros num contexto marcado pela crescente interdependência das cadeias globais de valor e pelo regresso de políticas comerciais mais ativas na economia internacional contemporânea.
The effects of the tariffs imposed by the United States on China under Section 301 of the Trade Act on U.S. imports between 2016 and 2024. The research seeks to answer three central questions: the magnitude of the tariffs' impact on Chinese imports; how this effect evolved over time; and the extent to which trade diversion to alternative markets has occurred. The methodology adopted is quantitative in nature and draws on international trade data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), at the disaggregated HTS-10 level. The empirical analysis employs a Difference-in-Differences model, comparing the evolution of U.S. imports from China (treatment group) with those from Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan (comparison group). The results reveal a negative and statistically significant impact of the tariffs on U.S. imports from China, with an estimated average reduction of 39%, reaching 45% for products subject to the maximum tariff rate of 25%. The dynamic analysis shows that this effect was not immediate, intensifying progressively to reach an implied reduction of 54% in 2024, which suggests a structural and lasting reconfiguration of trade flows. The response of alternative markets proves strongly heterogeneous: whereas Vietnam (+37%) conformed to the classical pattern of substitution, Mexico (-8%) and Taiwan (-11%) exhibited patterns of contagion, highlighting the role of productive structure and integration in global value chains in propagating the effects of tariffs. In conclusion, the trade war between the two economies produced not only a contraction in bilateral trade but also a sectoral and geographical reconfiguration of U.S. imports. The research contributes to the empirical literature by extending the analysis to 2024 and by documenting the heterogeneity in the response of third countries, within a context marked by the growing interdependence of global value chains and by the return of more active trade policies in the contemporary international economy.
The effects of the tariffs imposed by the United States on China under Section 301 of the Trade Act on U.S. imports between 2016 and 2024. The research seeks to answer three central questions: the magnitude of the tariffs' impact on Chinese imports; how this effect evolved over time; and the extent to which trade diversion to alternative markets has occurred. The methodology adopted is quantitative in nature and draws on international trade data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), at the disaggregated HTS-10 level. The empirical analysis employs a Difference-in-Differences model, comparing the evolution of U.S. imports from China (treatment group) with those from Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan (comparison group). The results reveal a negative and statistically significant impact of the tariffs on U.S. imports from China, with an estimated average reduction of 39%, reaching 45% for products subject to the maximum tariff rate of 25%. The dynamic analysis shows that this effect was not immediate, intensifying progressively to reach an implied reduction of 54% in 2024, which suggests a structural and lasting reconfiguration of trade flows. The response of alternative markets proves strongly heterogeneous: whereas Vietnam (+37%) conformed to the classical pattern of substitution, Mexico (-8%) and Taiwan (-11%) exhibited patterns of contagion, highlighting the role of productive structure and integration in global value chains in propagating the effects of tariffs. In conclusion, the trade war between the two economies produced not only a contraction in bilateral trade but also a sectoral and geographical reconfiguration of U.S. imports. The research contributes to the empirical literature by extending the analysis to 2024 and by documenting the heterogeneity in the response of third countries, within a context marked by the growing interdependence of global value chains and by the return of more active trade policies in the contemporary international economy.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Guerra comercial Secção 301 Tarifas Desvio de comércio Cadeias globais de valor China Estados Unidos Diferenças-em-Diferenças Trade war Section 301 Tariffs Trade diversion Global value chains United States Difference-in-Differences