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- Automated combination of bilateral energy contracts negotiation tacticsPublication . Pinto, Angelo; Pinto, Tiago; Silva, Francisco; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita; Corchado, Juan ManuelThis paper addresses the theme automated bilateral negotiation of energy contracts. In this work, the automatic combination between different negotiation tactics is proposed. This combination is done dynamically throughout the negotiation process, as result from the online assessment that is performed after each proposal and counter-proposal. The proposed method is integrated in a decision support system for bilateral negotiations, called Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiations (DECON), which in turn is integrated with the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM). This integration enables testing and validating the proposed methodology in a realistic market negotiation environment. A case study is presented, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed approach.
- Dispachability improvement of wind generation by the virtual power producersPublication . Morais, H.; Cardoso, Marilio; Saleiro, N.; Vale, Zita; Castanheira, Luís; Praça, IsabelNowadays, there is a growing environmental concern about were the energy that we use comes from, bringing the att ention on renewable energies. However, the use and trade of renewable e nergies in the market seem to be complicated because of the lack of guara ntees of generation, mainly in the wind farms. The lack of guarantees is usually addressed by using a reserve generation. The aggregation of DG p lants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of wind generation technologies, making them valuable in electricity markets. This paper presents some resul ts obtained with a simulation tool (ViProd) developed to support VPPs in the analysis of their operation and management methods and of their strat egies effects.
- Multi-agent Electricity Markets and Smart Grids Simulation with Connection to Real Physical ResourcesPublication . Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praça, Isabel; Gomes, Luis; Faria, PedroThe increasing penetration of distributed energy sources, mainly based on renewable generation, calls for an urgent emergence of novel advanced methods to deal with the associated problems. The consensus behind smart grids (SGs) as one of the most promising solutions for the massive integration of renewable energy sources in power systems has led to the development of several prototypes that aim at testing and validating SG methodologies. The urgent need to accommodate such resources require alternative solutions. This chapter presents a multi-agent based SG simulation platform connected to physical resources, so that realistic scenarios can be simulated. The SG simulator is also connected to the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets, which provides a solid framework for the simulation of electricity markets. The cooperation between the two simulation platforms provides huge studying opportunities under different perspectives, resulting in an important contribution to the fields of transactive energy, electricity markets, and SGs. A case study is presented, showing the potentialities for interaction between players of the two ecosystems: a SG operator, which manages the internal resources of a SG, is able to participate in electricity market negotiations to trade the necessary amounts of power to fulfill the needs of SG consumers.
- MASCEM: electricity markets simulation with strategic agentsPublication . Vale, Zita; Pinto, Tiago; Praça, Isabel; Morais, H.Electricity markets are complex environments, involving numerous entities trying to obtain the best advantages and profits while limited by power-network characteristics and constraints.1 The restructuring and consequent deregulation of electricity markets introduced a new economic dimension to the power industry. Some observers have criticized the restructuring process, however, because it has failed to improve market efficiency and has complicated the assurance of reliability and fairness of operations. To study and understand this type of market, we developed the Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) platform based on multiagent simulation. The MASCEM multiagent model includes players with strategies for bid definition, acting in forward, day-ahead, and balancing markets and considering both simple and complex bids. Our goal with MASCEM was to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This approach makes MASCEM both a short- and mediumterm simulation as well as a tool to support long-term decisions, such as those taken by regulators. This article proposes a new methodology integrated in MASCEM for bid definition in electricity markets. This methodology uses reinforcement learning algorithms to let players perceive changes in the environment, thus helping them react to the dynamic environment and adapt their bids accordingly.
- Multi-agent electricity market simulation with dynamic strategies & virtual power producersPublication . Praça, Isabel; Morais, H.; Ramos, Carlos; Vale, Zita; Khodr, H. M.Distributed energy resources will provide a significant amount of the electricity generation and will be a normal profitable business. In the new decentralized grid, customers will be among the many decentralized players and may even help to co-produce the required energy services such as demand-side management and load shedding. So, they will gain the opportunity to be more active market players. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. In this paper we propose the improvement of MASCEM, a multi-agent simulation tool to study negotiations in electricity spot markets based on different market mechanisms and behavior strategies, in order to take account of decentralized players such as VPP.
- Cost dependent strategy for electricity markets bidding based on adaptive reinforcement learningPublication . Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Rodrigues, Fátima; Praça, Isabel; Morais, H.Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players with strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible bids. These bids are defined accordingly to the cost function that each producer presents.
- Data-Mining-based filtering to support Solar Forecasting MethodologiesPublication . Pinto, Tiago; Marques, Luis; Sousa, Tiago M; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita; Abreu, Samuel LThis paper proposes an hybrid approach for short term solar intensity forecasting, which combines different forecasting methodologies with a clustering algorithm, which plays the role of data filter, in order to support the selection of the best data for training. A set of methodologies based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), used for short term solar irradiance forecast, is implemented and compared in order to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate methods and respective parameters according to the available information and needs. Data from the Brazilian city of Florianópolis, in the state of Santa Catarina, has been used to illustrate the methods applicability and conclusions. The dataset comprises the years of 1990 to 1999 and includes four solar irradiance components as well as other meteorological variables, such as temperature, wind speed and humidity. Conclusions about the irradiance components, parameters and the proposed clustering mechanism are presented. The results are studied and analysed considering both efficiency and effectiveness of the results. The experimental findings show that the hybrid model, combining a SVM approach with a clustering mechanism, to filter the data used for training, achieved promising results, outperforming the approaches without clustering.
- Day ahead electricity consumption forecasting with MOGUL learning modelPublication . Jozi, Aria; Pinto, Tiago; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita; Soares, JoãoDue to amount of today's electricity consumption, one of the most important tasks of the energy operators is to be able to predict the consumption and be ready to control the energy generation based on the estimated consumption for the future. In this way, having a trustable forecast of the electricity consumption is essential to control the consumption and maintain the balance in energy distribution networks. This study presents a day ahead forecasting approach based on a genetic fuzzy system for fuzzy rule learning based on the MOGUL methodology (GFS.FR.MOGUL). The proposed approach is used to forecast the electricity consumption of an office building in the following 24 hours. The goal of this work is to present a more reliable profile of the electricity consumption comparing to previous works. Therefore, this paper also includes the comparison of the results of day ahead forecasting using GFS.FR.MOGUL method against other fuzzy rule based methods, as well as a set of Artificial Neural Network(ANN) approaches. This comparison shows that using the GFS.FR.MOGUL forecasting method for day-ahead electricity consumption forecasting is able to estimate a more trustable value than the other approaches.
- From Data to Action: Exploring AI and IoT-driven Solutions for Smarter CitiesPublication . Dias, Tiago; Fonseca, Tiago; Vitorino, João; Martins, Andreia; Malpique, Sofia; Praça, IsabelThe emergence of smart cities demands harnessing advanced technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) and promises to unlock cities' potential to become more sustainable, efficient, and ultimately livable for their inhabitants. This work introduces an intelligent city management system that provides a data-driven approach to three use cases: (i) analyze traffic information to reduce the risk of traffic collisions and improve driver and pedestrian safety, (ii) identify when and where energy consumption can be reduced to improve cost savings, and (iii) detect maintenance issues like potholes in the city's roads and sidewalks, as well as the beginning of hazards like floods and fires. A case study in Aveiro City demonstrates the system's effectiveness in generating actionable insights that enhance security, energy efficiency, and sustainability, while highlighting the potential of AI and IoT-driven solutions for smart city development.
- Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players PortfolioPublication . Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Sousa, Tiago; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Praça, IsabelEnergy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities (bilateral negotiation, market sessions, and operation in different markets) and the negotiation context such as the peak and off-peak periods of the day, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.