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- The Impacts of Battery Electric Vehicles on the Power Grid: A Monte Carlo Method ApproachPublication . Nogueira, Teresa; Magano, José; Sousa, Ezequiel; Alves, Gustavo R.Balancing energy demand and supply will become an even greater challenge considering the ongoing transition from traditional fuel to electric vehicles (EV). The management of this task will heavily depend on the pace of the adoption of light-duty EVs. Electric vehicles have seen their market share increase worldwide; the same is happening in Portugal, partly because the government has kept incentives for consumers to purchase EVs, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. The consequent shift to EVs entails various challenges for the distribution network, including coping with the expected growing demand for power. This article addresses this concern by presenting a case study of an area comprising 20 municipalities in Northern Portugal, for which battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales and their impact on distribution networks are estimated within the 2030 horizon. The power required from the grid is estimated under three BEV sales growth deterministic scenarios based on a daily consumption rate resulting from the combination of long- and short-distance routes. A Monte Carlo computational simulation is run to account for uncertainty under severe EV sales growth. The analysis is carried out considering three popular BEV models in Portugal, namely the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model 3, and Renault Zoe. Their impacts on the available power of the distribution network are calculated for peak and off-peak hours. The results suggest that the current power grid capacity will not cope with demand increases as early as 2026. The modeling approach could be replicated in other regions with adjusted parameters.
- Electric vehicles growth until 2030: Impact on the distribution network powerPublication . Nogueira, Teresa; Sousa, Ezequiel; Alves, Gustavo R.In the coming years, we will witness a change in the current car fleet sales, from traditional fuel engines towards electrical vehicles (EVs), particularly passenger light-duty vehicles. They plug into the grid and store the electricity in rechargeable batteries; therefore, the widespread adoption of EVs will bring many challenges for the distribution network. Forecasting the impact of EVs on distribution networks is a difficult task given the uncertainty on the potential evolution of their sales. This study forecasts the EVs sales growth for the 2020–2030 decade in 3 possible evolution scenarios, carried out for a given Portuguese regional area. The demanded energy for charging the batteries was estimated, considering one long and one short route. The analysis was applied to three EVs models: Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model 3, and Renault Zoe. Their impacts on the rated power of the distribution network are calculated for the three scenarios, and the results are presented, standing out the insufficient power at peak hours.