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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Balancing energy demand and supply will become an even greater challenge considering
the ongoing transition from traditional fuel to electric vehicles (EV). The management of this task will
heavily depend on the pace of the adoption of light-duty EVs. Electric vehicles have seen their market
share increase worldwide; the same is happening in Portugal, partly because the government has kept
incentives for consumers to purchase EVs, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. The consequent shift
to EVs entails various challenges for the distribution network, including coping with the expected
growing demand for power. This article addresses this concern by presenting a case study of an
area comprising 20 municipalities in Northern Portugal, for which battery electric vehicles (BEV)
sales and their impact on distribution networks are estimated within the 2030 horizon. The power
required from the grid is estimated under three BEV sales growth deterministic scenarios based on a
daily consumption rate resulting from the combination of long- and short-distance routes. A Monte
Carlo computational simulation is run to account for uncertainty under severe EV sales growth. The
analysis is carried out considering three popular BEV models in Portugal, namely the Nissan Leaf,
Tesla Model 3, and Renault Zoe. Their impacts on the available power of the distribution network
are calculated for peak and off-peak hours. The results suggest that the current power grid capacity
will not cope with demand increases as early as 2026. The modeling approach could be replicated in
other regions with adjusted parameters.
Description
Keywords
BEV PHEV Electric vehicles EV sales Energy demand Distribution grid Power impact
Citation
Publisher
MDPI