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Abstract(s)
O estudo do comércio internacional é baseado em múltiplas teorias que pretendem explicar as bases e os ganhos do comércio. Um dos instrumentos analíticos que se têm apresentado mais robustos é o trazido pelo modelo gravitacional, importado da área do saber da física e da mecânica.
Numa época de mundialização do comércio, com uma crescente interdependência econômica e política, países emergentes como o Brasil assumem-se como potências mundiais. As relações comerciais do Brasil com os blocos econômicos do MERCOSUL, da NAFTA e da União Europeia, elegendo como variável endógena as exportações brasileiras para os países desses três blocos no período de 2000 a 2016, pretendem ser explicadas por variáveis economicas, demográficas ou geográficas, do país de origem e dos de destino, recorrendo a um modelo gravitacional e a dados em painel. No modelo gravitacional são incluídas variáveis de atração (produção, blocos econômicos, acesso ao mar, idioma comum) e variáveis de resistência ou limitativas (distância, isolamento geográfico, crise economico-financeira). Foram utilizados quatro modelos com os dados absolutos e com dados per capta, com metódos de estimação OLS e efeitos aleatórios.
Da investigação conclui-se que para o período estudado, as exportações brasileiras são influenciadas positivamente pelo comportamento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do Brasil e dos seus parceiros comerciais. O fato do Brasil pertencer ao MERCOSUL não se mostrou como fator determinante para a dinâmica das exportações, decorrente das condições de debilidade das economias parceiras do bloco; com efeito, a evolução das exportações brasileiras parece estar mais ligada ao conjunto de países pertencentes a outros blocos econômicos como a União Europeia e a NAFTA. A distância, a crise pós-2008 e o isolamento de pequenas economias insulares são fatores dissuasores das exportações brasileiras. A existência de fronteira marítima e o idioma comum nos países de destino afiguram-se como potenciadores das exportações brasileiras.
The study of international trade is based on multiple theories that aim to explain the basis and the earnings of commerce. One of the analytical instruments that have shown to be more robust is the one brought from the gravitational model, imported from the area of physics and mechanics. In a time of trade internationalization, with an increasing political and economic interdependence, emerging countries like Brazil show world power. The commercial relationships between Brazil and economic blocks such as the MERCOSUL, NAFTA and the European Union, using as endogenous variable the Brazilian exports to the countries that belong to those blocks between 2000 and 2016, aim to be explained by different variables like economic, demographic or geographic, from the origin and the destination country, using a gravitational model and panel data. In the gravitational model, attraction variables (production, economic blocks, access to the sea, common language) and resistence or limitative variables (distance, geographic isolation, economic and financial crisis) are included. Four models with absolute data and per capita data were used, with OLS estimation methods and random effects. We can conclude that Brazilian exports are positively influenced by the GDP’s behaviour (Gross Domestic Product) of Brazil and its trade partners. The fact that Brazil belongs to MERCOSUL doesn’t come as a determining factor to the export dynamic, due to the weakness conditions of the economies that are partners to the block; in fact, the evolution of Brazilian exports seems to be more connected to the set of countries belonging to other economic blocks such as the European Union and NAFTA. The distance, the post-2008 crisis and the isolation of small island economies are dissuasive factors of the Brazilian exports. The existence of maritime border and the common language in the destination countries seem to be enhancers of the Brazilian exports.
The study of international trade is based on multiple theories that aim to explain the basis and the earnings of commerce. One of the analytical instruments that have shown to be more robust is the one brought from the gravitational model, imported from the area of physics and mechanics. In a time of trade internationalization, with an increasing political and economic interdependence, emerging countries like Brazil show world power. The commercial relationships between Brazil and economic blocks such as the MERCOSUL, NAFTA and the European Union, using as endogenous variable the Brazilian exports to the countries that belong to those blocks between 2000 and 2016, aim to be explained by different variables like economic, demographic or geographic, from the origin and the destination country, using a gravitational model and panel data. In the gravitational model, attraction variables (production, economic blocks, access to the sea, common language) and resistence or limitative variables (distance, geographic isolation, economic and financial crisis) are included. Four models with absolute data and per capita data were used, with OLS estimation methods and random effects. We can conclude that Brazilian exports are positively influenced by the GDP’s behaviour (Gross Domestic Product) of Brazil and its trade partners. The fact that Brazil belongs to MERCOSUL doesn’t come as a determining factor to the export dynamic, due to the weakness conditions of the economies that are partners to the block; in fact, the evolution of Brazilian exports seems to be more connected to the set of countries belonging to other economic blocks such as the European Union and NAFTA. The distance, the post-2008 crisis and the isolation of small island economies are dissuasive factors of the Brazilian exports. The existence of maritime border and the common language in the destination countries seem to be enhancers of the Brazilian exports.
Description
Keywords
Blocos econômicos Exportações brasileiras Dados em painel Modelos gravitacionais Brazilian exports Panel data Gravitational models Economic blocks