| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.41 MB | Adobe PDF |
Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Em uma altura cada vez mais competitiva para as empresas de diferentes indústrias e sectores, as necessidades de investimento em fatores de diferenciação são críticas para a organização e estabilidade das mesmas. Nunca palavras como eficiência, prazo de entrega, qualidade e capacidade produtiva tiveram tanto peso para a continuidade de uma empresa no segmento de trabalho em que se insere. Temas como planeamento e escalonamento da produção começam a tornar-se fatores chave para a rentabilidade e posição estratégica da empresa. Uma preocupação latente com a previsão de vendas, previsão de compra, quantidade de produto acabado pronto a expedir, eficiência e rotação dos stocks, são importantes atividades logísticas das empresas, que fomentaram estudos e teorias para tornar a atividade mais eficaz e também contribuir para a redução dos custos que lhe estão inerentes. É neste contexto que este projeto de estágio pretende dar algum contributo, utilizando como caso de estudo a ALVMAC. Em fase de transição de ERP, a ALVMAC encontra-se apenas com módulos obrigatórios de faturação. Este é um processo que será demorado e poderá trazer alguns entraves a produção de produtos com histórico curto. Neste projeto pretende-se desenvolver um modelo de previsão adequado à realidade da empresa para um produto recente, em fase crescente, mas que ao mesmo tempo seja facilmente replicado e utilizado no dia-a-dia. Através da utilização do método HoltWinters multiplicativo foi possível realizar a previsão de vendas, o cálculo de quantidade económica de encomenda, ponto de encomenda, stock de segurança e ainda confrontar estes valores com os dados reais de venda da empresa em estudo.
At an increasingly competitive time for companies in different industries and sectors, the investment needs in differentiating factors are critical to their organization and stability. Never words as efficiency, delivery time, quality and productive capacity had so much weight for the continuity of a company in the segment of work in which it is inserted. Topics such as planning, and production scheduling begin to become key factors for the company's profitability and strategic position. Exponential increases in competition, failure in delivery times, spikes in sales, badly delineated production planning, lack of capacity / response become a constant concern. This leads managers, company managers, stockholders, department heads, to critically approach a supply chain management that is fully aligned with their goals and effective. A latent concern with sales forecasting, purchase forecasting, quantity of ready-to-ship finished product, inventory efficiency and stock rotation, are important business logistics activities that have fostered studies and theories to make the activity more effective and contribute to the costs. It is in this context that this internship project intends to make some contribution, using ALVMAC as a case study. In the transition phase of ERP, a process that will be delayed and may bring some obstacles to the production of products with a short history, this work intends to develop a forecast model appropriate to the reality of the company and at the same time be easily replicated and used in the day- to-day. Through the use of the multiplicative Holt-Winters method it was possible to carry out the sales forecast, the calculation of the economic quantity of the order, the order point, the safety stock and also compare these values with the actual sales data of the company under study.
At an increasingly competitive time for companies in different industries and sectors, the investment needs in differentiating factors are critical to their organization and stability. Never words as efficiency, delivery time, quality and productive capacity had so much weight for the continuity of a company in the segment of work in which it is inserted. Topics such as planning, and production scheduling begin to become key factors for the company's profitability and strategic position. Exponential increases in competition, failure in delivery times, spikes in sales, badly delineated production planning, lack of capacity / response become a constant concern. This leads managers, company managers, stockholders, department heads, to critically approach a supply chain management that is fully aligned with their goals and effective. A latent concern with sales forecasting, purchase forecasting, quantity of ready-to-ship finished product, inventory efficiency and stock rotation, are important business logistics activities that have fostered studies and theories to make the activity more effective and contribute to the costs. It is in this context that this internship project intends to make some contribution, using ALVMAC as a case study. In the transition phase of ERP, a process that will be delayed and may bring some obstacles to the production of products with a short history, this work intends to develop a forecast model appropriate to the reality of the company and at the same time be easily replicated and used in the day- to-day. Through the use of the multiplicative Holt-Winters method it was possible to carry out the sales forecast, the calculation of the economic quantity of the order, the order point, the safety stock and also compare these values with the actual sales data of the company under study.
Description
Keywords
Logística Previsão Gestão de Stocks Stock Stock Segurança Logistics Forecast Stock management Safety Stock