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Num contexto de mercados financeiros cada vez mais dinâmicos e globais, compreender os fatores que influenciam a determinação do preço de mercado das ações é um tema central para todos os seus intervenientes, desde académicos, investidores e analistas. Este trabalho analisa o contributo da contabilidade e das pesquisas dos investidores na determinação do preço de mercado das ações da Euronext Lisboa.
Com base na revisão da literatura e no enquadramento teórico, procedeu-se à seleção de variáveis organizadas em três grupos: (i) variáveis contabilísticas e financeiras relevantes, (ii) variáveis macroeconómicas e (iii) variáveis comportamentais associadas à atenção dos investidores. Para cada categoria foram identificados indicadores específicos que sustentaram a formulação das hipóteses de investigação.
A investigação recorreu à metodologia de dados em painel, aplicando modelos econométricos para analisar a relação entre as variáveis selecionadas e o preço de mercado das ações. A amostra abrangeu 28 empresas não financeiras cotadas na Euronext Lisboa, no período de 2019 a 2023. Excluiram-se da amostra empresas do setor financeiro e sociedades anónimas desportivas, de modo a garantir homogeneidade e comparabilidade dos resultados.
Conclui-se que a determinação do preço de mercado das ações na Euronext Lisboa resulta sobretudo da interação entre fatores contabilísticos e macroeconómicos, destacando-se a relevância do cash-flow operacional, da rentabilidade (ROE) e do crescimento do PIB como determinantes positivos e estatisticamente significativos. Já as variáveis comportamentais associadas à atenção dos investidores, medidas através das pesquisas no Google a nível mundial e em Portugal, não evidenciaram impacto estatisticamente significativo no período analisado, sugerindo que, no contexto português da Euronext Lisboa, a atenção online dos investidores pode não desempenhar um papel relevante na formação dos preços das ações. Estes resultados reforçam a importância de uma abordagem integrada, mas também indicam que a relevância de fatores comportamentais pode variar consoante o mercado e o enquadramento temporal considerado.
In an increasingly dynamic and global financial market, understanding the factors that influence the valuation of stock market prices is a key topic for all stakeholders, including scholars, investors and analysts. This study examines the contribution of accounting information and investor attention to determine the valuation of stock prices in Euronext Lisbon stock exchange. Based on the literature review and theoretical framework, variables were selected and organized into three groups: (i) relevant accounting and financial variables, (ii) macroeconomic variables, and (iii) behavioral variables associated with investor’s attention. For each category, specific indicators were identified to support the research hypotheses. The research employed panel data methodology, applying econometric models to analyze the relationship between the selected variables and stock market prices. The sample comprised 28 non-financial companies listed on Euronext Lisbon between 2019 and 2023. Financial institutions and sports corporations were excluded from the sample, in order to ensure homogeneity and comparability of results. It is concluded that the valuation of stock market prices on Euronext Lisbon results mainly from the interaction between accounting and macroeconomic factors, with operating cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and GDP growth standing out as positive and statistically significant determinants. In contrast, behavioral variables related to investor attention, measured through Google searches at both the global and Portuguese levels, showed no statistically significant impact during the period analyzed. This suggests that, in the Portuguese context of Euronext Lisbon, online investor’s attention may not play a relevant role in stock price valuation. These findings reinforce the importance of an integrated approach while also indicating that the relevance of behavioral factors may vary depending on the market and the temporal framework considered.
In an increasingly dynamic and global financial market, understanding the factors that influence the valuation of stock market prices is a key topic for all stakeholders, including scholars, investors and analysts. This study examines the contribution of accounting information and investor attention to determine the valuation of stock prices in Euronext Lisbon stock exchange. Based on the literature review and theoretical framework, variables were selected and organized into three groups: (i) relevant accounting and financial variables, (ii) macroeconomic variables, and (iii) behavioral variables associated with investor’s attention. For each category, specific indicators were identified to support the research hypotheses. The research employed panel data methodology, applying econometric models to analyze the relationship between the selected variables and stock market prices. The sample comprised 28 non-financial companies listed on Euronext Lisbon between 2019 and 2023. Financial institutions and sports corporations were excluded from the sample, in order to ensure homogeneity and comparability of results. It is concluded that the valuation of stock market prices on Euronext Lisbon results mainly from the interaction between accounting and macroeconomic factors, with operating cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and GDP growth standing out as positive and statistically significant determinants. In contrast, behavioral variables related to investor attention, measured through Google searches at both the global and Portuguese levels, showed no statistically significant impact during the period analyzed. This suggests that, in the Portuguese context of Euronext Lisbon, online investor’s attention may not play a relevant role in stock price valuation. These findings reinforce the importance of an integrated approach while also indicating that the relevance of behavioral factors may vary depending on the market and the temporal framework considered.
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Euronext Lisboa Preço de mercado das ações Value Relevance Atenção dos investidores Contabilidade Stock market prices Value Relevance Investor’s attention Accounting