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Abstract(s)
O crescimento dos preços da habitação registado em Portugal nos últimos anos tem
suscitado alguma controvérsia e inquietação no mercado habitacional. Compreender a
evolução do preço da habitação em relação aos seus fundamentais é crucial para avaliar
os riscos e assegurar a estabilidade financeira no mercado habitacional português.
Esta dissertação tem como objetivo investigar os determinantes e as elasticidades dos
preços da habitação nas áreas metropolitanas portuguesas entre 2011T1 e 2021T4. Assim
sendo, primeiramente utilizamos a metodologia de dados em painel para estudo dos
determinantes do preço da habitação a nível nacional, onde se recorreu ao método OLS FE para sua estimação. Posteriormente, estudamos as elasticidades da oferta e os
determinantes dos preços da habitação ao nível das áreas metropolitanas com recurso à
regressão de séries temporais (OLS).
Os resultados mostraram que a nível nacional os preços da habitação são inelásticos ao
rendimento (0,112) e a oferta inelástica. Concluímos que a elasticidade-preço ao
rendimento é inferior aos resultados encontrados em outros estudos em Portugal e na
Europa, sugerindo que existem outros fatores que explicam o preço da habitação em
Portugal. Ao nível das áreas metropolitanas, encontramos uma oferta inelástica também,
uma elasticidade-preço ao rendimento próxima de zero e um crescimento médio dos
preços da habitação de 24,52% entre 2011T1 e 2021T4. As AM do litoral registiram um
crescimento do preço da habitação e um efeito momentum mais elevado do que AM do
interior. Contudo, salientar que os preços da habitação são mais elásticos ao rendimento
e à oferta nas AM do interior onde existe mais espaço para contruir.
Por fim, esperamos que o presente estudo seja um implusionador para futuras
investigações sobre os determinantes e as elasticidades do preço da habitação nas áreas
metropolitanas portuguesas com intuito de ajudar a definir melhores políticas
habitacionais a nível local e nacional.
The growth of housing prices registered in Portugal in recent years has raised some controversy and concern in housing market. Understanding housing prices evolution regarding to fundamentals is crucial to assessing risks and ensuring financial stability in the portuguese housing market. This dissertation aims to investigate the determinants and elasticities of housing prices in portuguese metropolitan statistical areas between 2011Q1 and 2021Q4. Therefore, we first used the panel data methodology to study the determinants of housing prices at a national level, where the OLS-FE method was used for its estimation. Subsequently,we study the supply elasticities and determinants of housing prices at metropolitan statistical areas level be using the time series regression (OLS). The results showed that at national level, housing prices are inelastic to aggregate income (0.114) and supply is inelastic. We concluded that the price to income elasticity is lower than the results found in other studies in Portugal and Europe, suggesting that there are other factors that explain the price of housing in Portugal. At metropolitan statistical areas level, we found an inelastic supply, a price to income elasticity close to zero and an average growth in housing prices of 24,52% between 2011Q1 and 2021Q4. The coastal MSA registered a housing price growth and a momentum effect much higher than inland MSA. However, it should be noted that housing prices are more elastic to income and supply on inland MSA where there is more space to build. Finally, we expect that the present study will be a booster for further investigations on the determinants and elasticities of housing prices in portuguese metropolitan statistical areas with the objective to help define better housing policies at local and national level.
The growth of housing prices registered in Portugal in recent years has raised some controversy and concern in housing market. Understanding housing prices evolution regarding to fundamentals is crucial to assessing risks and ensuring financial stability in the portuguese housing market. This dissertation aims to investigate the determinants and elasticities of housing prices in portuguese metropolitan statistical areas between 2011Q1 and 2021Q4. Therefore, we first used the panel data methodology to study the determinants of housing prices at a national level, where the OLS-FE method was used for its estimation. Subsequently,we study the supply elasticities and determinants of housing prices at metropolitan statistical areas level be using the time series regression (OLS). The results showed that at national level, housing prices are inelastic to aggregate income (0.114) and supply is inelastic. We concluded that the price to income elasticity is lower than the results found in other studies in Portugal and Europe, suggesting that there are other factors that explain the price of housing in Portugal. At metropolitan statistical areas level, we found an inelastic supply, a price to income elasticity close to zero and an average growth in housing prices of 24,52% between 2011Q1 and 2021Q4. The coastal MSA registered a housing price growth and a momentum effect much higher than inland MSA. However, it should be noted that housing prices are more elastic to income and supply on inland MSA where there is more space to build. Finally, we expect that the present study will be a booster for further investigations on the determinants and elasticities of housing prices in portuguese metropolitan statistical areas with the objective to help define better housing policies at local and national level.
Description
Keywords
Preços da habitação Elasticidades Dados em painel Áreas metropolitanas e mercado habitacional Housing prices Elasticities Panel data Metropolitan statistical sreas and housing market