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Authors
Abstract(s)
Portugal exporta quase a totalidade da sua produção nacional de calçado sendo a
União Europeia e os EUA os dois maiores mercados de destino. Contudo, a
internacionalização do calçado português, com a exploração progressiva de novos mercados,
continua a ser a base da estratégia macroeconómica do setor. A forte tradição da indústria
portuguesa associada à sua reputação como origem de calçado de qualidade e moda e, tendo
nestas últimas décadas conquistado o segundo preço mais elevado no mundo, faz o setor ir
ao encontro de nichos com elevado poder de compra fora dos seus mercados tradicionais.
Neste contexto, pretendeu-se analisar os fatores determinantes do comportamento
das exportações da indústria portuguesa do calçado junto dos blocos económicos União
Europeia (UE), Tratado Norte-Americano de Livre Comércio (NAFTA), Conselho de
Cooperação para os Estados Árabes do Golfo (CCG) e Países Africanos de Língua Oficial
Portuguesa (PALOP), entre 2000 e 2018.
O estudo baseou-se no modelo econométrico de regressão linear múltipla – Modelo
Gravitacional-, utilizando o método de estimação dos mínimos quadrados (OLS). Através
do modelo, procurou-se analisar os determinantes das exportações do setor a partir de um
conjunto de variáveis conjunturais. A variável dependente respeita às exportações do setor
do calçado português sendo as variáveis explicativas a importância de Portugal pertencer à
União Europeia (UE), o PIB medido por Paridades de Poder de Compra (PPC) de cada país
pertencente aos blocos económicos UE, NAFTA, PALOP e CCG, o PPC de Portugal, a crise
económica mundial de 2008, a distância geográfica e a distância cultural.
Os resultados obtidos dos cálculos econométricos das determinantes escolhidas
permitiram conhecer melhor as variáveis de maior influência e de que modo estas interferem
nos fluxos comerciais entre Portugal e os vários blocos económicos. O estudo foi também
validado pelo teste de robustez através do Método de Efeitos Aleatórios.
Portugal currently exports nearly all of its national production of shoes – the EU and the USA being its two main destinations. However, internationalisation is still the foundation of the sector’s macroeconomic strategy, through the progressive exploration of new markets. This industry’s strong tradition in Portugal, together with its reputation for producing high quality and fashionable footwear, and the fact that it has reached a position of second most expensive product in the world over the last few decades, has steered the sector towards high purchasing power market niches outside its traditional market scope. Therefore, this study intends to analyse the determining factors in the behaviour of Portuguese footwear industry exports concerning major economic blocs, such as the European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Portuguese-Speaking African Countries (PALOP), between the years of 2000 and 2018. This study was based on a multiple linear regression econometric model – the Gravity Model – using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Through this model, the goal was to analyse the decisive factors in the sector’s exports, from a number of circumstantial variables. The dependent variable relates to exports in the Portuguese footwear sector, while the explanatory variables relate to the fact that Portugal belongs to the European Union (EU); the average GDP calculated on the basis of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of each country belonging to the EU, NAFTA, PALOP and GCC economic blocs; Portuguese GDP per capita of the PPP; the economic crisis of 2008; and also geographic and cultural distances. The results obtained for the econometric calculations of the chosen determinants, allowed a better understanding of the most influential variables and in which way those interfere in the commercial flows between Portugal and several other partners and economic blocs. The study has also been validated through a robustness testing using the Generalised Least Squares model.
Portugal currently exports nearly all of its national production of shoes – the EU and the USA being its two main destinations. However, internationalisation is still the foundation of the sector’s macroeconomic strategy, through the progressive exploration of new markets. This industry’s strong tradition in Portugal, together with its reputation for producing high quality and fashionable footwear, and the fact that it has reached a position of second most expensive product in the world over the last few decades, has steered the sector towards high purchasing power market niches outside its traditional market scope. Therefore, this study intends to analyse the determining factors in the behaviour of Portuguese footwear industry exports concerning major economic blocs, such as the European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Portuguese-Speaking African Countries (PALOP), between the years of 2000 and 2018. This study was based on a multiple linear regression econometric model – the Gravity Model – using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Through this model, the goal was to analyse the decisive factors in the sector’s exports, from a number of circumstantial variables. The dependent variable relates to exports in the Portuguese footwear sector, while the explanatory variables relate to the fact that Portugal belongs to the European Union (EU); the average GDP calculated on the basis of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of each country belonging to the EU, NAFTA, PALOP and GCC economic blocs; Portuguese GDP per capita of the PPP; the economic crisis of 2008; and also geographic and cultural distances. The results obtained for the econometric calculations of the chosen determinants, allowed a better understanding of the most influential variables and in which way those interfere in the commercial flows between Portugal and several other partners and economic blocs. The study has also been validated through a robustness testing using the Generalised Least Squares model.
Description
Keywords
Internacionalização Calçado português Modelo gravitacional Blocos económicos Internationalisation Economic blocs Portuguese shoes Gravity model