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Abstract(s)
A indústria brasileira de árvores plantadas é, atualmente, uma referência mundial por sua
atuação pautada pela sustentabilidade, competitividade e inovação. Entre os principais
produtos está a celulose, com exportações que trazem inegável contribuição para a
balança comercial e geram muitos empregos e renda em todas as regiões do país. A
produção brasileira de celulose em 2020, foi de 16,21 milhões de toneladas. Por ter essa
relevância para o desenvolvimento social, ambiental e econômico nacional. O objetivo
desta pesquisa foi analisar e avaliar a existência de vantagens comparativas reveladas, a
tendência de orientação das exportações brasileiras, bem como procurar identificar as
principais fontes de crescimento das exportações de celulose. A abordagem foi feita por
meio ex-post, através do cálculo e análise de indicadores do comércio internacional,
nomeadamente, o Índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR), o Índice de
Orientação Regional (IOR) e o modelo Constant Market Share (CMS), do período de
2007 a 2018 e teve como base dados de referência para a realização do estudo a base de
dados das Nações Unidas - The United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database
(UN COMTRADE), que disponibilizaram dados de exportações com frete Free on Board
(FOB) e importações com Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) e a Secretaria de Comércio
Exterior (Secex) do Brasil. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, no período analisado, a
celulose brasileira apresentou VCR acima da unidade, ou seja, o Brasil teve vantagens
comparativas reveladas em comparação com os países analisados. Já quanto ao IOR, os
resultados indicam que as exportações brasileiras de celulose estão direcionadas
principalmente para China, EUA, Holanda e Itália. No modelo Constant Market Share as
fontes de crescimento das exportações brasileiras de celulose no período I, foi o efeito da
competividade com 95,68%, no período II também foi o efeito da competitividade com
396,12%, o responsável pelo crescimento das exportações brasileiras e celulose. Já no
para terceiro período, o efeito do crescimento do comércio mundial foi responsável pelo
aumento das exportações brasileiras de celulose.
The Brazilian planted tree industry is currently a world reference for its performance based on sustainability, competitiveness and innovation. Among the main products is cellulose, with exports that make an undeniable contribution to the trade balance and generate many jobs and income in all regions of the country. Brazilian pulp production in 2020 was 16.21 million tons. For having this relevance for national social, environmental and economic development. The objective of this research was to analyze and evaluate the existence of revealed comparative advantages, the trend of orientation of the Brazilian exports, as well as to try to identify the main sources of growth of the pulp exports. The approach was made through ex-post, through the calculation and analysis of international trade indicators, namely, the Index of Comparative Advantages Revealed (IVCR), the Regional Orientation Index (IOR) and the Constant Market Share model (CMS) , from 2007 to 2018 and was based on reference data for the study, the United Nations database - The United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN COMTRADE), which provided export data with Free on Board shipping ( FOB) and imports with Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) and the Brazilian Department of Foreign Trade (Secex). The results obtained indicate that, in the analyzed period, the Brazilian pulp presented VCR above the unit, that is, Brazil had comparative advantages revealed in comparison with the analyzed countries. As for the IOR, the results indicate that Brazilian pulp exports are mainly directed to China, USA, Holland and Italy. In the Constant Market Share model, the sources of growth of Brazilian pulp exports in period I were the effect of competitiveness with 95.68%, in period II it was also the effect of competitiveness with 396.12%, responsible for the growth of exports and pulp. In the third period, the effect of the growth in world trade was responsible for the increase in Brazilian pulp exports.
The Brazilian planted tree industry is currently a world reference for its performance based on sustainability, competitiveness and innovation. Among the main products is cellulose, with exports that make an undeniable contribution to the trade balance and generate many jobs and income in all regions of the country. Brazilian pulp production in 2020 was 16.21 million tons. For having this relevance for national social, environmental and economic development. The objective of this research was to analyze and evaluate the existence of revealed comparative advantages, the trend of orientation of the Brazilian exports, as well as to try to identify the main sources of growth of the pulp exports. The approach was made through ex-post, through the calculation and analysis of international trade indicators, namely, the Index of Comparative Advantages Revealed (IVCR), the Regional Orientation Index (IOR) and the Constant Market Share model (CMS) , from 2007 to 2018 and was based on reference data for the study, the United Nations database - The United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN COMTRADE), which provided export data with Free on Board shipping ( FOB) and imports with Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) and the Brazilian Department of Foreign Trade (Secex). The results obtained indicate that, in the analyzed period, the Brazilian pulp presented VCR above the unit, that is, Brazil had comparative advantages revealed in comparison with the analyzed countries. As for the IOR, the results indicate that Brazilian pulp exports are mainly directed to China, USA, Holland and Italy. In the Constant Market Share model, the sources of growth of Brazilian pulp exports in period I were the effect of competitiveness with 95.68%, in period II it was also the effect of competitiveness with 396.12%, responsible for the growth of exports and pulp. In the third period, the effect of the growth in world trade was responsible for the increase in Brazilian pulp exports.
Description
Keywords
Celulose Competitividade Exportação Índice de vantagens comparativas reveladas Índice de orientação regional Modelo constant market Share Revealed comparative advantage index Model constant market share Regional guidance index