A carregar...
Publicação
Equity Valuation: Amazon
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 MB | Adobe PDF |
Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo estimar o valor intrínseco da
Amazon.com, Inc. através da aplicação do modelo de Fluxos de Caixa Descontados
(DCF), complementado por análise de sensibilidade, avaliação de cenários e validação
cruzada por múltiplos de mercado. A Amazon foi selecionada como objeto de estudo pela
sua relevância económica global, pela diversificação do seu modelo de negócio, que
combina comércio eletrónico, computação em nuvem (AWS), publicidade digital e
serviços de subscrição, e pelo desafio metodológico que a sua heterogeneidade estrutural
representa para os modelos de valuation.
A metodologia adotada assenta na abordagem do Free Cash Flow to the Firm
(FCFF), descontado ao Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), com um horizonte
de projeção explícito de cinco anos (2026-2030) e valor residual de crescimento perpétuo.
As premissas de crescimento, rentabilidade e investimento fundamentam-se na análise
histórica das demonstrações financeiras (2020-2025) e no enquadramento
macroeconómico e setorial contemporâneo.
Os resultados do cenário base indicam um valor intrínseco de 61,27 dólares por
ação, com um valor esperado ponderado de 62,92 dólares e um intervalo de confiança de
40,87 a 89,89 dólares. Face ao preço de mercado de 258,81 dólares, o modelo aponta para
uma divergência significativa, cuja interpretação requer consideração das limitações
metodológicas do DCF e das dimensões de valor estratégico não capturadas pelo modelo
standard. A avaliação relativa posiciona a Amazon de forma coerente face aos pares
tecnológicos, validando parcialmente os resultados.
O estudo contribui para a literatura de equity valuation através da aplicação
integrada de múltiplas metodologias a um caso empírico complexo, evidenciando a
importância da validação cruzada e da gestão da incerteza em contextos de alta
volatilidade tecnológica e macroeconómica.
This dissertation aims to estimate the intrinsic value of Amazon.com, Inc. through the application of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, complemented by sensitivity analysis, scenario evaluation, and cross-validation through market multiples. Amazon was selected as the subject of study due to its global economic relevance, the diversification of its business model, which combines e-commerce, cloud computing (AWS), digital advertising, and subscription services, and the methodological challenge that its structural heterogeneity poses for valuation models. The adopted methodology relies on the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) approach, discounted at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), with an explicit projection horizon of five years (2026-2030) and a perpetual growth terminal value. The growth, profitability, and investment assumptions are grounded in the historical analysis of financial statements (2020-2025) and the contemporary macroeconomic and sectoral framework. The base scenario results indicate an intrinsic value of USD 61,27 per share, with a weighted expected value of USD 62,92 and a confidence interval of USD 40,87 to USD 89,89. Compared to the market price of USD 258,81, the model points to a significant divergence, whose interpretation requires consideration of the methodological limitations of DCF and the strategic value dimensions not captured by the standard model. Relative valuation positions Amazon coherently against technology peers, partially validating the results. The study contributes to the equity valuation literature through the integrated application of multiple methodologies to a complex empirical case, highlighting the importance of cross-validation and uncertainty management in contexts of high technological and macroeconomic volatility.
This dissertation aims to estimate the intrinsic value of Amazon.com, Inc. through the application of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, complemented by sensitivity analysis, scenario evaluation, and cross-validation through market multiples. Amazon was selected as the subject of study due to its global economic relevance, the diversification of its business model, which combines e-commerce, cloud computing (AWS), digital advertising, and subscription services, and the methodological challenge that its structural heterogeneity poses for valuation models. The adopted methodology relies on the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) approach, discounted at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), with an explicit projection horizon of five years (2026-2030) and a perpetual growth terminal value. The growth, profitability, and investment assumptions are grounded in the historical analysis of financial statements (2020-2025) and the contemporary macroeconomic and sectoral framework. The base scenario results indicate an intrinsic value of USD 61,27 per share, with a weighted expected value of USD 62,92 and a confidence interval of USD 40,87 to USD 89,89. Compared to the market price of USD 258,81, the model points to a significant divergence, whose interpretation requires consideration of the methodological limitations of DCF and the strategic value dimensions not captured by the standard model. Relative valuation positions Amazon coherently against technology peers, partially validating the results. The study contributes to the equity valuation literature through the integrated application of multiple methodologies to a complex empirical case, highlighting the importance of cross-validation and uncertainty management in contexts of high technological and macroeconomic volatility.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Equity Valuation Fluxos de Caixa Descontados Amazon Avaliação Relativa Equity Valuation Discounted Cash Flow Amazon Relative Valuation