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Abstract(s)
Nas últimas décadas, a internacionalização dos mercados e o crescimento das relações económicas e comerciais, conduziram ao aumento do investimento internacional nomeadamente ao investimento direto estrangeiro. O IDE consiste, na sua essência, numa forma de investimento transfronteiriço - com o mínimo de 10% do capital da empresa em que se investe - realizado numa economia distinta da do investidor. Para além de riscos económicos e financeiros associados aos investimentos transfronteiriços, quer em países desenvolvidos quer em países em desenvolvimento, o risco político também tem impacto sobre as captações de IDE.
Desta forma, a presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo analisar o impacto do risco político e, concretamente, as implicações das 12 componentes aqui usadas na sua composição sobre a captação de IDE. Para isto, utilizou-se uma amostra de 88 países sendo 56 deles países em desenvolvimento e, os restantes, países desenvolvidos no período de tempo compreendido entre 1993 e 2017. Como forma de complementar a análise, pretende-se ainda comparar as diferenças do impacto do risco político e suas componentes sobre a captação de IDE entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Para o efeito procedeu-se à estimação de modelos de dados em painel, mais especificamente o Modelo Fixed Effects (FE) e Modelo Random Effects (RE).
Os resultados obtidos, de forma geral, sugerem que o risco político representa um impacto negativo na captação de investimento direto estrangeiro; quanto à hipótese de nos países em desenvolvimento os influxos de IDE são mais sensíveis ao risco político do que nos países desenvolvidos observa-se apenas parcialmente essa realidade, verificada sobretudo no período posterior a 2007 e em relação a alguns dos indicadores usados na medição do risco político.
In the last decades, the internationalization of markets and the growth of economic and trade relations have led to an increase in international investment, specifically foreign direct investment. FDI is basically a form of cross-border investment - with a minimum investment of 10% of the capital of the company in which it is invested - made in a different economy from that of the investor. In addition to economic and financial risks associated with cross-border investments, both in developed and developing countries, political risk has an impact on FDI inflows. Therefore, the main purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the impact of political risk, and consequently the impact of the 12 components that constitute it, on FDI inflows. For this purpose we used a sample of 88 countries, of which 56 are developing countries and the rest are developed countries, in the period between 1993 and 2017. As a way of completing the analysis, it also intends to compare the differences in the impact of political risk and its components on FDI inflows between developed and developing countries. For this purpose, we estimated panel data models, more specifically the Fixed Effects Model (FE) and the Random Effects Model (RE). The results obtained, in general, suggest that political risk has a negative impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment; with reference to the hypothesis that in developing countries FDI inflows are more sensitive to political risk than in developed countries, this reality is only observed in part, especially in the period after 2007 and in relation to some of the indicators used to measure political risk.
In the last decades, the internationalization of markets and the growth of economic and trade relations have led to an increase in international investment, specifically foreign direct investment. FDI is basically a form of cross-border investment - with a minimum investment of 10% of the capital of the company in which it is invested - made in a different economy from that of the investor. In addition to economic and financial risks associated with cross-border investments, both in developed and developing countries, political risk has an impact on FDI inflows. Therefore, the main purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the impact of political risk, and consequently the impact of the 12 components that constitute it, on FDI inflows. For this purpose we used a sample of 88 countries, of which 56 are developing countries and the rest are developed countries, in the period between 1993 and 2017. As a way of completing the analysis, it also intends to compare the differences in the impact of political risk and its components on FDI inflows between developed and developing countries. For this purpose, we estimated panel data models, more specifically the Fixed Effects Model (FE) and the Random Effects Model (RE). The results obtained, in general, suggest that political risk has a negative impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment; with reference to the hypothesis that in developing countries FDI inflows are more sensitive to political risk than in developed countries, this reality is only observed in part, especially in the period after 2007 and in relation to some of the indicators used to measure political risk.
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Keywords
Investimento direto estrangeiro Risco político Países em desenvolvimento Países desenvolvidos Foreign direct investment Political risk Developing countries Developed countries