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Determinação do valor intrínseco de uma PME: estudo de caso – a empresa Diamantino Seguros
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Resumo(s)
O presente estudo estima o valor económico da Diamantino Seguros, microempresa portuguesa de mediação de seguros, na sequência de uma aproximação de compra, enquadrando a análise na Insurance Distribution Directive (IDD) e na Lei n.º 7/2019, que aumentam os custos de compliance e o risco operacional. Segue-se um desenho aplicado com as contas 2018–2024 e entrevistas aos sócios, numa carteira de 6.220 apólices e retenção próxima de 95%. Em 2024 o volume de negócios foi 270.962,94€ e a margem EBITDA caiu para 3,45 por um reforço de pessoal e FSE, num ano de investimento que antecede a nova loja em Alpendurada, com 50 mil euros de capex e potencial para um milhão de euros de prémios em regime estabilizado. A avaliação assenta no Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) com perpetuidade e taxa de desconto obtida por build-up, vertida num WACC de 12,47% e crescimento terminal de 2,5%, triangulada por múltiplos e por um valor patrimonial ajustado. Em complemento, uma simulação de Monte Carlo quantifica a incerteza dos parâmetros de desconto, do crescimento e da execução. Os resultados apontam para um valor do capital próprio de 1,264 milhões de euros no caso base, com uma mediana simulada de 1,450 milhões e um intervalo P10–P90 entre 1,129 e 1,908 milhões, refletindo a dominância do valor terminal. A comparação com práticas locais ancoradas em 1,5x prémios cobrados produz um headline superior ao valor intrínseco e exige harmonização de métricas e um earn-out para alinhar o preço e o risco. Recomenda-se uma negociação cash-free debt-free em torno de 1,45 milhões, com um pagamento inicial de 0,9–1,1 milhões e um earn-out trianual indexado aos prémios e retenção, alinhando incentivos e partilhando o risco. O trabalho oferece um quadro replicável para microintermediários, ancorado nas International Valuation Standards (IVS), que articula evidência histórica, modelização prospetiva e exigências regulatórias, e explicita os riscos de pessoa-chave, de compliance e de execução, determinantes para a transferibilidade do valor.
This dissertation estimates the economic value of Diamantino Seguros, a Portuguese micro insurance broker, following a buy-side approach and framed by the Insurance Distribution Directive (IDD) and its Portuguese transposition, which raise compliance costs and operational risk. An applied design is adopted, combining statutory accounts for 2018–2024 with semi-structured interviews to the owners, on a portfolio of 6,220 policies with a retention rate close to 95 percent. In 2024 turnover reached 270,962.94 euros and the EBITDA margin fell to 3.4 percent due to personnel and external services, in a year of investment preceding a new branch in Alpendurada with 50 thousand euros in capex and potential to stabilise around one million euros in written premiums. The valuation relies on Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) with a perpetual terminal value and a build-up discount rate, resulting in a WACC of 12.47 percent and a terminal growth of 2.5 percent, triangulated with market multiples and an adjusted net asset value. A Monte Carlo simulation quantifies uncertainty in discount rates, terminal growth and execution. Results indicate an equity value of 1.264 million euros in the base case, a simulated median of 1.450 million and a P10–P90 range between 1.129 and 1.908 million euros, with a dominant terminal component. Comparison with local practices anchored at 1.5× gross premiums written (GPW) yields a headline above intrinsic value, calling for metric harmonisation and contingent structures (earn-outs) to align price and risk. The recommended negotiation is cash-free debt-free around 1.45 million euros, with an upfront payment of 0.9–1.1 million and a three-year earn-out linked to gross premiums and retention, aligning incentives and sharing risk. The study offers a replicable framework for valuing micro-intermediaries, grounded in the International Valuation Standards (IVS), bridging historical evidence, forward-looking modelling and regulatory governance, and disclosing key-person, compliance and execution risks that condition value transferability.
This dissertation estimates the economic value of Diamantino Seguros, a Portuguese micro insurance broker, following a buy-side approach and framed by the Insurance Distribution Directive (IDD) and its Portuguese transposition, which raise compliance costs and operational risk. An applied design is adopted, combining statutory accounts for 2018–2024 with semi-structured interviews to the owners, on a portfolio of 6,220 policies with a retention rate close to 95 percent. In 2024 turnover reached 270,962.94 euros and the EBITDA margin fell to 3.4 percent due to personnel and external services, in a year of investment preceding a new branch in Alpendurada with 50 thousand euros in capex and potential to stabilise around one million euros in written premiums. The valuation relies on Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) with a perpetual terminal value and a build-up discount rate, resulting in a WACC of 12.47 percent and a terminal growth of 2.5 percent, triangulated with market multiples and an adjusted net asset value. A Monte Carlo simulation quantifies uncertainty in discount rates, terminal growth and execution. Results indicate an equity value of 1.264 million euros in the base case, a simulated median of 1.450 million and a P10–P90 range between 1.129 and 1.908 million euros, with a dominant terminal component. Comparison with local practices anchored at 1.5× gross premiums written (GPW) yields a headline above intrinsic value, calling for metric harmonisation and contingent structures (earn-outs) to align price and risk. The recommended negotiation is cash-free debt-free around 1.45 million euros, with an upfront payment of 0.9–1.1 million and a three-year earn-out linked to gross premiums and retention, aligning incentives and sharing risk. The study offers a replicable framework for valuing micro-intermediaries, grounded in the International Valuation Standards (IVS), bridging historical evidence, forward-looking modelling and regulatory governance, and disclosing key-person, compliance and execution risks that condition value transferability.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Avaliação de empresas Earn-out Cash flows descontados Mediação de seguros Business valuation Earn-out Discounted cash flows Insurance brokerage
Contexto Educativo
Citação
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Licença CC
Sem licença CC