Browsing by Author "Ferreira, Carla Manuela Pinto"
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- Modelo de previsão de insolvências no setor hoteleiro em PortugalPublication . Ferreira, Carla Manuela Pinto; Pereira, Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro AndradeCorporate insolvency is reflected in the inability of a particular company to meet its obligations when due. Given the importance of this theme, it is an asset for companies to build a prediction model of insolvency, which translate into a simple economic analysis tool and, therefore, accessible to all interested parties. With this paper we intend to identify which business variables have the best ability to forecasting the likelihood of a company in the hotelier sector go into insolvency. The study focuses on the period 2010-2015, for which we built an insolvency forecasting model by the method of multiple discriminant analysis with panel data. Initially, we applied the model to the full period referred to and, later, the regression was estimated for each year individually, by looking at the variability of their predictive capacity along the horizon. After the analysis of the obtained results it was found that the variables that together provide a better prediction of the likelihood of a future insolvency of companies in the hotelier sector in Portugal are: the size, the debt, the debt in the short term, the return on sales and return on equity. Note that each variable in particular was relevant to at least one of the stages examined. The dimension is the variable that has greater weight in the forecast model, standing out as the best predictor, regardless of the period used. The constructed model can be considered a tool of appropriate analysis, demonstrating a high degree of reliability through a correct classification level greater than 90% in all periods of analysis, reaching the desired goal.