Browsing by Author "Alves, Pedro Miguel"
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- Telco customer top‐ups: Stream‐based multi‐target regressionPublication . Alves, Pedro Miguel; Filipe, Ricardo; Malheiro, BeneditaTelecommunication operators compete not only for new clients, but, above all, to maintain current ones. The modelling and prediction of the top-up behaviour of prepaid mobile subscribers allows operators to anticipate customer intentions and implement measures to strengthen customer relationship. This research explores a data set from a Portuguese operator, comprising 30 months of top-up events, to predict the top-up monthly frequency and average value of prepaid subscribers using offline and online multi-target regression algorithms. The offline techniques adopt a monthly sliding window, whereas the online techniques use an event sliding window. Experiments were performed to determine the most promising set of features, analyse the accuracy of the offline and online regressors and the impact of sliding window dimension. The results show that online regression outperforms the offline counterparts. The best accuracy was achieved with adaptive model rules and a sliding window of 500 000 events (approximately 5 months). Finally, the predicted top-up monthly frequency and average value of each subscriber were converted to individual date and value intervals, which can be used by the operator to identify early signs of subscriber disengagement and immediately take pre-emptive measures.
- Telco customer top‐ups: Stream‐based multi‐target regressionPublication . Alves, Pedro Miguel; Filipe, Ricardo Ângelo; Malheiro, BeneditaTelecommunication operators compete not only for new clients, but, above all, to maintain current ones. The modelling and prediction of the top-up behaviour of prepaid mobile subscribers allows operators to anticipate customer intentions and implement measures to strengthen customer relationship. This research explores a data set from a Portuguese operator, comprising 30 months of top-up events, to predict the top-up monthly frequency and average value of prepaid subscribers using offline and online multi-target regression algorithms. The offline techniques adopt a monthly sliding window, whereas the online techniques use an event sliding window. Experiments were performed to determine the most promising set of features, analyse the accuracy of the offline and online regressors and the impact of sliding window dimension. The results show that online regression outperforms the offline counterparts. The best accuracy was achieved with adaptive model rules and a sliding window of 500,000 events (approximately 5 months). Finally, the predicted top-up monthly frequency and average value of each subscriber were converted to individual date and value intervals, which can be used by the operator to identify early signs of subscriber disengagement and immediately take pre-emptive measures.
- Towards Top-Up Prediction on Telco OperatorsPublication . Alves, Pedro Miguel; Filipe, Ricardo Ângelo; Malheiro, BeneditaIn spite of their growing maturity, telecommunication operators lack complete client characterisation, essential to improve quality of service. Additionally, studies show that the cost to retain a client is lower than the cost associated to acquire new ones. Hence, understanding and predicting future client actions is a trend on the rise, crucial to improve the relationship between operator and client. In this paper, we focus in pay-as-you-go clients with uneven top-ups. We aim to determine to what extent we are able to predict the individual frequency and average value of monthly top-ups. To answer this question, we resort to a Portuguese mobile network operator data set with around 200 000 clients, and nine-month of client top-up events, to build client profiles. The proposed method adopts sliding window multiple linear regression and accuracy metrics to determine the best set of features and window size for the prediction of the individual top-up monthly frequency and monthly value. Results are very promising, showing that it is possible to estimate the upcoming individual target values with high accuracy.