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A análise discriminante como instrumento preditivo de fracasso das pequenas entidades
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Abstract(s)
Esta dissertação tem por base a aplicação do modelo de previsão de fracasso empresarial desenvolvido por Edward I. Altman ao tecido empresarial português, tentando perceber até que ponto o modelo por si desenvolvido apresentará resultados tão satisfatórios como aqueles que por ele foram alcançados aquando da realização dos seus estudos.
Atendendo às diferentes características e especificidades de cada setor de atividade, decidiu-se aplicar o modelo às empresas que integram a Classificação Portuguesa das Atividades Económicas (rev.3) 55 – Alojamento. Numa primeira parte far-se-á uma caracterização deste setor de atividade de forma a entender o tipo de empresas que serão analisadas no estudo para posteriormente ser aplicado o Z-Score Model a essas empresas.
Os resultados obtidos, tendo por base a metodologia adotada para a seleção da amostra, revelam que o modelo de Altman não tem na sua totalidade uma boa capacidade preditiva para as empresas portuguesas analisadas apesar de comportar satisfatoriamente em parte do estudo.
The following dissertation discusses the application of Edward I. Altman’s corporate distress prediction model to the Portuguese industry, in an attempt to test whether this model will present results as satisfactory as the results of Altman’s studies. In view of the features and specificities of each sector of activity, a decision was made to apply the model to businesses classified as 55 – Accommodation, as per the Portuguese Classification of Economic Activities (3 rd rev.). The first step will be to characterize this sector of activity so as to have a solid grasp of the kind of business under analysis in the study to be later applied the Z-Score Model to these companies. Following our sampling methodology, the results obtained reveal the predictive ability of Altman’s model, in its entirety, to be lacking when applied to the Portuguese businesses in the study, despite performing satisfactorily in part of the study.
The following dissertation discusses the application of Edward I. Altman’s corporate distress prediction model to the Portuguese industry, in an attempt to test whether this model will present results as satisfactory as the results of Altman’s studies. In view of the features and specificities of each sector of activity, a decision was made to apply the model to businesses classified as 55 – Accommodation, as per the Portuguese Classification of Economic Activities (3 rd rev.). The first step will be to characterize this sector of activity so as to have a solid grasp of the kind of business under analysis in the study to be later applied the Z-Score Model to these companies. Following our sampling methodology, the results obtained reveal the predictive ability of Altman’s model, in its entirety, to be lacking when applied to the Portuguese businesses in the study, despite performing satisfactorily in part of the study.
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Keywords
Previsão Fracasso Rácios financeiros Microentidades Alojamento Prediction Failure Financial ratios Micro-enterprises Accommodation