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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A atual perda de confiança nas demonstrações financeiras das empresas, derivada de diversos escândalos financeiros, conduziu a que o objetivo da presente investigação se centrasse na verificação do nível de utilidade dos modelos de previsão de falências enquanto ferramenta de trabalho de auditoria.
Como tal, este estudo irá incidir, inicialmente, sobre uma contextualização dos conceitos necessários à compreensão do tema e sobre as respetivas causas da degradação do desempenho das empresas.
Neste seguimento, serão explicados detalhadamente três modelos de previsão de falências, desenvolvidos por William Beaver, Edward Altman e James Ohlson, respetivamente. A partir destes modelos, serão evidenciados os sinais de falência presentes nas demonstrações financeiras, culminando com uma breve referência a outros modelos existentes e algumas áreas onde os modelos de previsão de falências podem ser utilizados.
Por fim, diversos testes serão conduzidos com vista a obter elações sobre a capacidade dos fatores mais comuns na literatura influenciarem a probabilidade de falência, assim como serão testados os três modelos de previsão de falências referidos anteriormente com o objetivo de aferir o nível de utilidade subjacente na sua utilização como ferramenta de auditoria.
Para isso, na realização dos testes será utilizada uma amostra de 15 empresas ativas e 15 empresas que declararam falência no ano 2018 ou 2019, pertencentes ao setor do vestuário, sendo que serão utilizados os dados das demonstrações financeiras desde 2013 a 2017.
The current loss of confidence upon financial statements arose from the variety of financial scandals in the past few years, which led to the fact that this investigation would focus on the utility of predicting financial distress models as an audit work tool. Therefore, initially, this study will focus on the necessary concepts to fully understand this theme, as well as on the performance degradation causes of the companies. Subsequently, they will be specified three predicting financial distress models, developed by William Beaver, Edward Altman and James Ohlson, respectively. Thenceforth, bankruptcy signals on financial statements will be highlighted, ending with a brief reference about other existing models and some areas where predicting financial distress models can be used. Lastly, multiple tests will be conducted to conclude about the influence that the most common variables in literature can have through failure prediction, as well as the three models mentioned above will be tested to obtain the utility level of their use as a work audit tool. To this end, the tests will be based on a sample composed by 15 active companies and 15 bankrupted ones that filled for this situation in 2018 or 2019, considering that both groups belong to the garment sector and that the data that will be use refer to financial statements from 2013 until 2017.
The current loss of confidence upon financial statements arose from the variety of financial scandals in the past few years, which led to the fact that this investigation would focus on the utility of predicting financial distress models as an audit work tool. Therefore, initially, this study will focus on the necessary concepts to fully understand this theme, as well as on the performance degradation causes of the companies. Subsequently, they will be specified three predicting financial distress models, developed by William Beaver, Edward Altman and James Ohlson, respectively. Thenceforth, bankruptcy signals on financial statements will be highlighted, ending with a brief reference about other existing models and some areas where predicting financial distress models can be used. Lastly, multiple tests will be conducted to conclude about the influence that the most common variables in literature can have through failure prediction, as well as the three models mentioned above will be tested to obtain the utility level of their use as a work audit tool. To this end, the tests will be based on a sample composed by 15 active companies and 15 bankrupted ones that filled for this situation in 2018 or 2019, considering that both groups belong to the garment sector and that the data that will be use refer to financial statements from 2013 until 2017.
Description
Versão Final (Esta versão contém as críticas e sugestões dos elementos do júri)
Keywords
Escândalos financeiros Previsão de falências Sinais de falência Demonstrações financeiras Predicting financial distress Financial statements Financial scandals Bankruptcy signals