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Authors
Abstract(s)
O sistema financeiro é constantemente alvo de incertezas e mudanças que podem
levar a empresa a um estado de rutura e constituir um elevado risco para a economia. De
modo a evitar este cenário, é importante estudar os modelos de previsão de falência, uma
vez que constituem ferramentas úteis para a sobrevivência das empresas, despertando a
atenção de vários gestores e analistas financeiros.
Neste sentido, o objetivo desta dissertação é analisar alguns dos modelos de
previsão de falências e aplicar aquele que se considera ser o mais importante, o modelo
de Altman, verificando a capacidade preditiva do mesmo.
Para isso, foram escolhidas para a amostra 499 empresas portuguesas, 455 com o
estado de atividade ativo e 44 empresas com o estado de insolvência, que apresentassem
dados financeiros nos anos de 2020, 2021 e 2022. As empresas tinham o CAE relacionado
com o setor de restauração (CAE 56) e os dados foram recolhidos através da plataforma
dados Sabi.
As variáveis independentes selecionadas foram os rácios financeiros, uma vez que
estes constituem uma das formas mais usadas para analisar a situação de uma determinada
empresa. Os rácios utilizados no presente estudo foram os mesmos que foram usados por
Altman no seu modelo Z-Score: rácios de liquidez, de atividade, de rentabilidade, de
alavancagem e de cobertura.
The financial system is constantly subject to uncertainties and changes that can lead a company to collapse and pose a high risk to the economy. In order to avoid this scenario, it is important to study bankruptcy prediction models, as they are useful tools for the survival of companies, attracting the attention of many managers and financial analysts. In this sense, the aim of this dissertation is to analyze some of the bankruptcy prediction models and apply what is considered to be the most important, the Altman model, verifying its predictive capacity. To this end, 499 Portuguese companies were chosen for the sample, 455 with active activity status and 44 companies with insolvency status, and which presented data for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. The companies had a CAE related to the restaurant sector (CAE 56) and the data was collected using the Sabi database. The independent variables selected were the financial ratios, since these are one of the most widely used ways of analyzing a company's situation. The ratios used in this study were the same as those used by Altman in his Z-Score model: liquidity, activity, profitability, leverage and coverage ratios.
The financial system is constantly subject to uncertainties and changes that can lead a company to collapse and pose a high risk to the economy. In order to avoid this scenario, it is important to study bankruptcy prediction models, as they are useful tools for the survival of companies, attracting the attention of many managers and financial analysts. In this sense, the aim of this dissertation is to analyze some of the bankruptcy prediction models and apply what is considered to be the most important, the Altman model, verifying its predictive capacity. To this end, 499 Portuguese companies were chosen for the sample, 455 with active activity status and 44 companies with insolvency status, and which presented data for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. The companies had a CAE related to the restaurant sector (CAE 56) and the data was collected using the Sabi database. The independent variables selected were the financial ratios, since these are one of the most widely used ways of analyzing a company's situation. The ratios used in this study were the same as those used by Altman in his Z-Score model: liquidity, activity, profitability, leverage and coverage ratios.
Description
Keywords
Falência Modelos de previsão de falência Altman Z-score Bankruptcy Bankruptcy prediction models