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Publication
Equity valuation – ASML Holdings N.V.
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| 1.58 MB | Adobe PDF |
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Abstract(s)
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo avaliar o valor intrínseco das ações da ASML
Holdings N.V. a 31 de dezembro de 2024, recorrendo a diferentes métodos de avaliação
de empresas. A ASML foi selecionada pela sua relevância estratégica no setor da
tecnologia, nomeadamente no segmento de semicondutores, onde detém uma posição de
liderança global. A análise enquadra-se nos fundamentos da teoria do valor proposta por
Léon Walras (1874), a qual sustenta que o valor de um ativo resulta da utilidade marginal
atribuída pelos agentes económicos, servindo de base conceptual aos modelos financeiros
modernos.
A metodologia adotada consiste em um estudo de caso, com recurso a três abordagens
complementares: o modelo dos Free Cash Flows to the Firm, o modelo do Economic
Value Added e a avaliação relativa com base em múltiplos de mercado. Os dados
utilizados provêm do relatório anual da ASML referente a 2024 e 2023, bem como de
fontes externas como Damodaran, Fundo Monetário Internacional e o Banco Central
Europeu.
Os resultados demonstram uma divergência significativa entre os métodos aplicados: o
valor intrínseco por ação estimado pelo FCFF foi de €304.95, pelo EVA €386.53, e pela
avaliação relativa €914.37, face a um preço de mercado de €678.70. A média ponderada
dos métodos sugere que as ações estavam sobrevalorizadas em aproximadamente
21.13%, o que levou à recomendação de venda.
Este estudo evidencia a utilidade da avaliação fundamentada como suporte à tomada de
decisões financeiras, reforçando a importância de combinar diferentes abordagens para
obter uma visão mais completa do valor económico de uma empresa.
This dissertation aims to evaluate the intrinsic value of ASML Holdings N.V. shares as of December 31, 2024, using different company valuation methods. ASML was selected due to its strategic relevance in the technology sector, particularly in the semiconductor segment, where it holds a leading global position. The analysis is framed within the principles of value theory proposed by Léon Walras (1874), which argues that the value of an asset derives from the marginal utility assigned by economic agents, forming a conceptual foundation for modern financial models. The methodology adopted is a case study, employing three complementary approaches: the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) model, the Economic Value Added (EVA) model, and relative valuation based on market multiples. The data used were drawn from ASML’s 2023 and 2024 annual reports, as well as from external sources such as Damodaran, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank. The results show a significant divergence among the applied methods: the estimated intrinsic value per share was €304.95 under the FCFF model, €386.53 using the EVA model, and €914.37 through relative valuation, against a market price of €678.70. The weighted average of these methods indicates that the shares were overvalued by approximately 21.13%, which led to a sell recommendation. This study highlights the usefulness of grounded valuation as a support tool for financial decision-making, reinforcing the importance of combining different approaches to achieve a more comprehensive assessment of a company’s economic value.
This dissertation aims to evaluate the intrinsic value of ASML Holdings N.V. shares as of December 31, 2024, using different company valuation methods. ASML was selected due to its strategic relevance in the technology sector, particularly in the semiconductor segment, where it holds a leading global position. The analysis is framed within the principles of value theory proposed by Léon Walras (1874), which argues that the value of an asset derives from the marginal utility assigned by economic agents, forming a conceptual foundation for modern financial models. The methodology adopted is a case study, employing three complementary approaches: the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) model, the Economic Value Added (EVA) model, and relative valuation based on market multiples. The data used were drawn from ASML’s 2023 and 2024 annual reports, as well as from external sources such as Damodaran, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank. The results show a significant divergence among the applied methods: the estimated intrinsic value per share was €304.95 under the FCFF model, €386.53 using the EVA model, and €914.37 through relative valuation, against a market price of €678.70. The weighted average of these methods indicates that the shares were overvalued by approximately 21.13%, which led to a sell recommendation. This study highlights the usefulness of grounded valuation as a support tool for financial decision-making, reinforcing the importance of combining different approaches to achieve a more comprehensive assessment of a company’s economic value.
Description
Keywords
Avaliação de empresas FCFF EVA Múltiplos de mercado Business valuation Market multiples