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Publication
O Endividamento dos municípios em Portugal: uma análise a fatores multidimensionais e contextuais
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| 1.6 MB | Adobe PDF |
Abstract(s)
O endividamento dos municípios portugueses tem sido objeto de reflexão e preocupação ao longo dos anos, dada a sua significativa contribuição para a dívida pública nacional. O Regime Financeiro das Autarquias Locais e das Entidades Intermunicipais introduziu várias alterações legislativas com o objetivo de promover a redução do endividamento municipal. Dada a importância de compreender as razões subjacentes ao aumento do endividamento, esta investigação tem como objetivo identificar os fatores que o impulsionam.
Com base na recolha de dados relativos aos 308 municípios portugueses, para um período de 11 anos (2012-2022), analisou-se o impacto de fatores económico-financeiros, politico-ideológicos e institucionais no endividamento municipal. Para tal, recorreu-se a uma abordagem quantitativa, aplicando modelos econométricos para dados em painel, com o objetivo de identificar os principais determinantes do endividamento municipal.
Consideram-se ainda as disparidades nacionais ao nível demográfico e geográfico, segmentando-se a análise com base nestas diferenças, de modo a obter resultados específicos e concretos para cada região e dimensão.
Os resultados evidenciaram que os fatores analisados são validados em determinadas regiões e para determinadas dimensões, corroborando a premissa das assimetrias e a necessidade de avaliar a evolução do endividamento de um município em função da sua região e dimensão demográfica. Verificou-se ainda que, por um lado, todos os grupos de análise validaram pelo menos um fator e, por outro, não existe nenhum fator validado por todos os grupos. Destaca-se ainda que determinados fatores exercem uma influência positiva no endividamento num determinado grupo de análise, enquanto noutro apresentam uma influência negativa, reforçando, assim, a existência de uma grande heterogeneidade municipal em Portugal.
The indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities has been a subject of reflection and concern over the years, given its significant contribution to national public debt. The Financial Regime of Local Authorities and Intermunicipal Entities introduced several legislative changes aimed at promoting a reduction in municipal debt. Given the importance of understanding the underlying reasons for the increase in indebtedness, this research seeks to identify the factors that drive it. Based on data collected from 308 Portuguese municipalities over an 11-year period (2012–2022), this study examines the impact of economic-financial, political-ideological, and institutional factors on municipal indebtedness. To this end, a quantitative approach was adopted, applying econometric models for panel data to identify the main determinants of municipal debt. National demographic and geographic disparities are also considered, with the analysis segmented according to these differences to obtain specific and concrete results for each region and municipality size. The findings indicate that the analyzed factors are validated in certain regions and for specific municipality sizes, supporting the premise of asymmetries and the need to assess the evolution of a municipality's debt in relation to its region and demographic size. Furthermore, while each analytical group validated at least one factor, no single factor was validated across all groups. Notably, certain factors exert a positive influence on indebtedness in one analytical group, while having a negative impact in another, thereby reinforcing the existence of significant municipal heterogeneity in Portugal.
The indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities has been a subject of reflection and concern over the years, given its significant contribution to national public debt. The Financial Regime of Local Authorities and Intermunicipal Entities introduced several legislative changes aimed at promoting a reduction in municipal debt. Given the importance of understanding the underlying reasons for the increase in indebtedness, this research seeks to identify the factors that drive it. Based on data collected from 308 Portuguese municipalities over an 11-year period (2012–2022), this study examines the impact of economic-financial, political-ideological, and institutional factors on municipal indebtedness. To this end, a quantitative approach was adopted, applying econometric models for panel data to identify the main determinants of municipal debt. National demographic and geographic disparities are also considered, with the analysis segmented according to these differences to obtain specific and concrete results for each region and municipality size. The findings indicate that the analyzed factors are validated in certain regions and for specific municipality sizes, supporting the premise of asymmetries and the need to assess the evolution of a municipality's debt in relation to its region and demographic size. Furthermore, while each analytical group validated at least one factor, no single factor was validated across all groups. Notably, certain factors exert a positive influence on indebtedness in one analytical group, while having a negative impact in another, thereby reinforcing the existence of significant municipal heterogeneity in Portugal.
Description
Keywords
Endividamento municipal Fatores determinantes Região Dimensão Municipal indebtedness Determinant factors Region Dimension