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Abstract(s)
Este estudo investiga a formação de bolhas imobiliárias nas Áreas Metropolitanas do Porto e de Lisboa e, ainda a ocorrência de efeito spillover, ou seja a influência imobiliária das cidades centrais (Porto e Lisboa) sobre os municípios contíguos. Utilizando uma metodologia quantiativa, baseada no modelo do valor presente, na aplicação de testes de hipóteses e no teste de causalidade de Granger, a abranger o período de 2011 a 2022, com dados recolhidos no Instituto Nacional de Estatística.
As hipóteses de investigação testadas centram-se na existência de bolhas imobiliárias, no impacto do crescimento dos preços sobre o poder de compra das famílias e na verificação de efeito spillover entre as cidades do Porto e Lisboa e os respetivos municípios contíguos escolhidos. Os resultados demonstram que, tanto na AMP como na AML, há uma tendência de subida significativa dos preços do imobiliário, refletindo dificuldades de acessibilidade habitacional. A análise indica também que os salários têm uma correlação negativa com as yield´s imobiliárias, sugerindo que, à medida que os rendimentos das famílias aumentam, a acessibilidade à habitação diminui, dado que os preços das casas aumentam numa proporção ainda maior.
A pesquisa conclui que, embora não tenha sido possível confirmar a existência de uma bolha imobiliária generalizada durante o período estudado, há sinais de sobrevalorização de preços, especialmente em 2022. O efeito spillover foi comprovado em ambas as áreas metropolitanas, com os preços dos imóveis nas cidades centrais a influenciar os valores praticados nas periferias. Este fenómeno pode aumentar a pressão sobre os municípios contíguos, agravando as disparidades regionais e a inacessibilidade habitacional.
Este estudo recomenda a monitorização contínua do mercado e a implementação de políticas públicas que promovam uma oferta de habitação equilibrada, de modo a evitar a intensificação das bolhas imobiliárias e garantir maior acessibilidade de habitacional.
The present study analyzes the formation of real estate bubbles in the Metropolitan Areas of Porto and Lisbon and also the occurrence of the spillover effect, that is, the real estate influence of the satellite cities (Porto and Lisbon) on the contiguous municipalities. Using a quantitative methodology, based on the present value model, the application of hypothesis tests and the Granger causality test, the study covers the period from 2011 to 2022, with data collected at the National Institute of Statistics. The main hypotheses tested focus on the existence of real estate bubbles, the impact of price growth on the purchasing power of households and the verification of the spillover effect between the cities of Porto and Lisbon and the contiguous municipalities. The results show that, both in the AMP and in the AML, there is a significant upward trend in real estate prices, reflecting difficulties in housing affordability. The analysis also indicates that wages have a negative correlation with real estate yields, suggesting that as household incomes rise, housing affordability declines, as house prices rise at an even greater rate. The research concludes that, although it was not possible to confirm the existence of a generalized real estate bubble during the entire period studied, there are signs of price overvaluation, especially in 2022. The spillover effect was proven in both metropolitan areas, with property prices in central cities influencing the values practiced in the peripheries. This phenomenon can increase pressure on contiguous municipalities, exacerbating regional disparities and housing inaccessibility. The study recommends continuous monitoring of the market and the implementation of public policies that promote a balanced housing supply, in order to avoid the intensification of real estate bubbles and ensure greater housing affordability.
The present study analyzes the formation of real estate bubbles in the Metropolitan Areas of Porto and Lisbon and also the occurrence of the spillover effect, that is, the real estate influence of the satellite cities (Porto and Lisbon) on the contiguous municipalities. Using a quantitative methodology, based on the present value model, the application of hypothesis tests and the Granger causality test, the study covers the period from 2011 to 2022, with data collected at the National Institute of Statistics. The main hypotheses tested focus on the existence of real estate bubbles, the impact of price growth on the purchasing power of households and the verification of the spillover effect between the cities of Porto and Lisbon and the contiguous municipalities. The results show that, both in the AMP and in the AML, there is a significant upward trend in real estate prices, reflecting difficulties in housing affordability. The analysis also indicates that wages have a negative correlation with real estate yields, suggesting that as household incomes rise, housing affordability declines, as house prices rise at an even greater rate. The research concludes that, although it was not possible to confirm the existence of a generalized real estate bubble during the entire period studied, there are signs of price overvaluation, especially in 2022. The spillover effect was proven in both metropolitan areas, with property prices in central cities influencing the values practiced in the peripheries. This phenomenon can increase pressure on contiguous municipalities, exacerbating regional disparities and housing inaccessibility. The study recommends continuous monitoring of the market and the implementation of public policies that promote a balanced housing supply, in order to avoid the intensification of real estate bubbles and ensure greater housing affordability.
Description
Keywords
Bolhas imobiliárias Spillover Inacessibilidade e habitação Real estate bubbles Spillover Inaccessibility and housing