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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Os contratos de assistência técnicos garantem, aos detentores do equipamento, uma alta
disponibilidade, produtividade e segurança a preços controlados. O valor do contrato é, muitas
vezes, dimensionado com base em informação geral como a duração e do tipo de equipamento
segurado, ignorando a variabilidade intrínseca ao processo de avarias e que é resultado de causas
aleatórias.
Nesta dissertação, apresentam-se resultados de um trabalho de investigação que tem como
principal objetivo o desenvolvimento de uma estrutura tarifária para o produto de contratos de
assistência. No desenvolvimento do modelo, partiu-se do princípio de que a intervenção/avaria
pode ser provocada por diferentes causas, independentes, e consideram-se processos pontuais de
Poisson para modelar o processo gerador de cada tipo de ocorrência.
Os trabalhos foram iniciados com uma revisão de todos os conceitos e ferramentas fundamentais
utilizados ao longo do texto, seguindo-se a elaboração do estado da arte relacionado com o
problema em estudo. Seguidamente, é apresentado o modelo estatístico proposto para
dimensionar o valor de contratos de assistência e que pode ser aplicado, de forma generalizada, a
vários tipos de equipamentos. Para além de estimativas pontuais e intervalares para o valor do
contrato, o modelo desenvolvido permite simular tempos de ocorrências de necessidades de
intervenção.
Por fim, são apresentados e discutidos resultados da ilustração da metodologia proposta quando
aplicada a um conjunto de dados reais.
Os programas desenvolvidos para implementar a metodologia proposta foram escritos em
linguagem Python e permitem a obtenção do valor do custo de forma automática.
Technical assistance contracts ensure high availability, productivity, and safety for equipment owners at controlled prices. The value of the contract is often calculated based on general information such as duration and type of use, ignoring the variability involved in the breakdown process and which is the result of random causes. This dissertation presents the results of a research project whose main objective is to develop a pricing structure for the service contract product. The model development assumes that the intervention/breakdown can be caused by different, independent causes, and Poisson point processes are considered to model the process that generates each type of occurrence. The work began with a review of all the fundamental concepts and tools used throughout the text, followed by an analysis of the state of the art related to the problem analysed. This is followed by a presentation of the statistical model proposed to measure the value of service contracts, which can be applied in a generalised way to various types of equipment. In addition to point and interval estimates for the value of the contract, the model developed makes it possible to simulate times when intervention needs occur. In the end, the results of the illustration of the proposed methodology when applied to a set of real data are presented and discussed. The developed codes to implement the proposed methodology were written in Python and allow the cost to be obtained automatically.
Technical assistance contracts ensure high availability, productivity, and safety for equipment owners at controlled prices. The value of the contract is often calculated based on general information such as duration and type of use, ignoring the variability involved in the breakdown process and which is the result of random causes. This dissertation presents the results of a research project whose main objective is to develop a pricing structure for the service contract product. The model development assumes that the intervention/breakdown can be caused by different, independent causes, and Poisson point processes are considered to model the process that generates each type of occurrence. The work began with a review of all the fundamental concepts and tools used throughout the text, followed by an analysis of the state of the art related to the problem analysed. This is followed by a presentation of the statistical model proposed to measure the value of service contracts, which can be applied in a generalised way to various types of equipment. In addition to point and interval estimates for the value of the contract, the model developed makes it possible to simulate times when intervention needs occur. In the end, the results of the illustration of the proposed methodology when applied to a set of real data are presented and discussed. The developed codes to implement the proposed methodology were written in Python and allow the cost to be obtained automatically.
Description
Keywords
Cost Maintenance Contracts Mathematical Model Interventions Amount Simulation