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Sistema financeiro, estrutura financeira e crescimento económico
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Abstract(s)
O presente estudo analisa o impacto da estrutura financeira sobre o crescimento
económico, procurando determinar se economias com sistemas financeiros
predominantemente baseados em bancos (bank-based) ou orientados para os mercados
(market-based) apresentam desempenhos distintos em termos de crescimento económico.
A amostra é constituída por 12 países europeus com sistemas financeiros desenvolvidos,
no período de 2000 a 2023, classificados como market-based e bank-based, segundo
Demirgüç-Kunt e Levine (1999) e Lourenço (2023), tendo sido estimados modelos com
dados em painel com efeitos fixos seccionais e temporais.
Os resultados obtidos indicam que o desenvolvimento financeiro não apresenta relação
estatisticamente significativa com o crescimento económico, possivelmente devido à
maturidade dos sistemas financeiros analisados. De forma semelhante, os indicadores de
estrutura financeira revelam apenas efeitos marginais, sendo que os índices de estrutura
agregada e de atividade mostram um impacto positivo, ainda que com significância
estatística reduzida (10%). Estes resultados sugerem que, em economias financeiramente
desenvolvidas, a estrutura do sistema financeiro exerce um papel limitado sobre o
crescimento económico.
As variáveis macroeconómicas clássicas, como o PIB inicial, a formação bruta de capital,
a abertura comercial e a inflação, demonstraram ser os principais determinantes do
crescimento económico.
This study analyses the impact of financial structure on economic growth, aiming to determine whether economies with predominantly bank-based or market-oriented financial systems exhibit distinct economic growth performances. The sample consists of 12 European countries with developed financial systems, covering the period from 2000 to 2023, classified as market-based or bank-based according to Demirgüç-Kunt and Levine (1999) and Lourenço (2023). Panel data models with sectional and time fixed effects were estimated. The results indicate that financial development does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth, possibly reflecting the maturity of the analysed financial systems. Similarly, financial structure indicators show only marginal effects, with aggregate structure and activity indices exhibiting a positive impact, albeit with low statistical significance (10%). These findings suggest that, in financially developed economies, the financial system’s structure plays a limited role in economic growth. Classical macroeconomic variables, such as initial GDP, gross capital formation, trade openness, and inflation, were found to be the main determinants of economic growth.
This study analyses the impact of financial structure on economic growth, aiming to determine whether economies with predominantly bank-based or market-oriented financial systems exhibit distinct economic growth performances. The sample consists of 12 European countries with developed financial systems, covering the period from 2000 to 2023, classified as market-based or bank-based according to Demirgüç-Kunt and Levine (1999) and Lourenço (2023). Panel data models with sectional and time fixed effects were estimated. The results indicate that financial development does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth, possibly reflecting the maturity of the analysed financial systems. Similarly, financial structure indicators show only marginal effects, with aggregate structure and activity indices exhibiting a positive impact, albeit with low statistical significance (10%). These findings suggest that, in financially developed economies, the financial system’s structure plays a limited role in economic growth. Classical macroeconomic variables, such as initial GDP, gross capital formation, trade openness, and inflation, were found to be the main determinants of economic growth.
Description
Keywords
Crescimento económico Dados em painel Desenvolvimento financeiro Estrutura financeira Economic growth Financial development Financial structure Panel data