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Recuperação de empresas zombie: o caso da indústria transformadora portuguesa
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“Empresa zombie” é o conceito atribuído a empresas caracterizadas pela falta de viabilidade económica e baixa produtividade, que sobrevivem devido ao apoio externo por parte dos bancos e governos. Estas empresas definem-se geralmente como empresas que operam há mais de 10 anos no mercado e que não conseguem gerar lucros suficientes para cobrir os seus próprios encargos financeiros.
A presente dissertação tem como principal finalidade analisar a presença de empresas zombie em Portugal e os determinantes que influenciam a sua possível recuperação. Deste modo, foram analisadas empresas portuguesas do setor da Indústria Transformadora, secção C do sistema de Classificação das Atividades Económicas, para o período de 2010 a 2023.
Para classificação das empresas zombie, foi aplicada uma definição que reúne cumulativamente 3 critérios: um rácio de cobertura de juros inferior a 1, por dois anos consecutivos, um resultado líquido negativo por dois anos consecutivos e, idade igual ou superior a 10 anos.
Como modelo econométrico, foi utilizado um modelo de regressão Logit para avaliar a influência dos determinantes na recuperação das empresas zombie. Este modelo permitiu a análise da relação entre variáveis explicativas, como: a Antiguidade, a Estrutura de Ativos, a Produtividade do Trabalho, o Perfil Inovador da empresa e a probabilidade de recuperar a sua viabilidade económica.
Os resultados das regressões indicaram que a redução do endividamento e o aumento, quer do indicador de inovação de uma empresa, quer da produtividade, conferem-lhe maior probabilidade de recuperação do estado zombie. Não foi possível analisar o efeito resultante da reestruturação, representada na literatura como downsizing, visto os resultados obtidos não terem sugerido influência estatística.
“Zombie firm” is the term used to describe companies characterized by a lack of economic viability and low productivity, which survive due to external support from banks and governments. These companies are generally defined as firms that have been operating in the market for more than 10 years and are unable to generate sufficient profits to cover their own financial costs. The main purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the presence of zombie firms in Portugal and the determinants that influence their potential recovery. To this end, Portuguese companies in the Manufacturing Industry sector, classified under section C of the Economic Activity Classification system, were analyzed for the period from 2010 to 2023. To classify the zombie firms, a definition was applied that cumulatively includes three criteria: an interest coverage ratio of less than 1 for two consecutive years, a negative net income for two consecutive years, and an age of 10 years or more. As an econometric model, a Logit regression model was used to assess the influence of the determinants on the recovery of zombie firms. This model made it possible to analyze the relationship between explanatory variables, such as Age, Asset Structure, Labor Productivity, and the Innovative Profile of the company, and the probability of recovering its economic viability. The findings of the regressions indicated that reducing debt and increasing both a company's innovation indicator and productivity give it greater probability of recovering from the zombie state. However, it was not possible to analyze the effect resulting from the restructuring, represented in the literature as downsizing, as the results obtained did not suggest a statistical influence.
“Zombie firm” is the term used to describe companies characterized by a lack of economic viability and low productivity, which survive due to external support from banks and governments. These companies are generally defined as firms that have been operating in the market for more than 10 years and are unable to generate sufficient profits to cover their own financial costs. The main purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the presence of zombie firms in Portugal and the determinants that influence their potential recovery. To this end, Portuguese companies in the Manufacturing Industry sector, classified under section C of the Economic Activity Classification system, were analyzed for the period from 2010 to 2023. To classify the zombie firms, a definition was applied that cumulatively includes three criteria: an interest coverage ratio of less than 1 for two consecutive years, a negative net income for two consecutive years, and an age of 10 years or more. As an econometric model, a Logit regression model was used to assess the influence of the determinants on the recovery of zombie firms. This model made it possible to analyze the relationship between explanatory variables, such as Age, Asset Structure, Labor Productivity, and the Innovative Profile of the company, and the probability of recovering its economic viability. The findings of the regressions indicated that reducing debt and increasing both a company's innovation indicator and productivity give it greater probability of recovering from the zombie state. However, it was not possible to analyze the effect resulting from the restructuring, represented in the literature as downsizing, as the results obtained did not suggest a statistical influence.
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Keywords
Recuperação Determinantes Empresas zombie Portugal Recovery Zombie firms Determinants