A carregar...
Publicação
Equity valuation: NVIDIA Corp.
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.04 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
A presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo analisar financeiramente e avaliar a NVIDIA Corporation, com o intuito de determinar o preço justo da sua ação à data de 14 de abril de 2026.
Após uma revisão da literatura sobre os principais métodos de avaliação de empresas, concluiu-se que o método dos Fluxos de Caixa Descontados (DCF), com base no Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) e utilizando a WACC, constitui a metodologia mais adequada para a avaliação da empresa. De forma complementar, foi igualmente realizada uma avaliação relativa através da utilização de múltiplos de mercado, bem como análises de sensibilidade e de cenários.
A aplicação do método DCF resultou num preço-alvo de 163,92 dólares por ação, valor inferior ao preço de mercado observado na data de referência (196,51 dólares), conduzindo a uma recomendação de VENDA. A avaliação relativa reforça esta perspetiva, uma vez que a a média simples das cotações implícitas obtidas através dos diferentes múltiplos foi de aproximadamente 165,70 dólares por ação o que se verifica que a empresa está sobreavaliada face ao peer group considerado. Contudo, a análise de cenários demonstrou que o valor da NVIDIA é altamente sensível às expectativas de crescimento associadas ao mercado da inteligência artificial. No cenário otimista, suportado pelas projeções da administração relativamente à expansão da IA e dos data centers, o valor estimado da ação ascende significativamente aos 348,55 dólares. Considerando as probabilidades atribuídas aos diferentes cenários, obteve-se um preço médio ponderado de aproximadamente 246,15 dólares por ação, valor superior à cotação de mercado observada, conduzindo implicitamente a uma recomendação de COMPRA.
Conclui-se que a empresa apresenta fundamentos sólidos e uma posição de liderança estratégica no setor da inteligência artificial, embora o atual nível de valorização incorpore expecta
This dissertation aims to financially analyze and value NVIDIA Corporation in order to determine the fair value of its stock as of April 14, 2026. Following a literature review on the main corporate valuation methodologies, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model based on the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) and using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) was identified as the most appropriate methodology for the company’s valuation. Additionally, a relative valuation based on market multiples was also performed, together with sensitivity and scenario analyses. The application of the DCF method resulted in a target price of $163.92 per share, which is below the market price observed on the reference date ($196.51), leading to a SELL recommendation. The relative valuation reinforces this perspective, since the simple average of the implied share prices obtained through the different multiples was approximately $165.70 per share, suggesting that the company is overvalued relative to the selected peer group. However, the scenario analysis demonstrated that NVIDIA’s valuation is highly sensitive to growth expectations associated with the artificial intelligence market. Under the optimistic scenario, supported by management’s projections regarding the expansion of AI and data centers, the estimated share price increases significantly to $348.55. Considering the probabilities assigned to the different scenarios, a weighted average target price of approximately $246.15 per share was obtained, which is above the observed market price, implicitly leading to a BUY recommendation. It is therefore concluded that the company presents strong fundamentals and a leading strategic position within the artificial intelligence sector, although its current valuation already incorporates very high growth expectations, increasing the investment risk associated with the company.
This dissertation aims to financially analyze and value NVIDIA Corporation in order to determine the fair value of its stock as of April 14, 2026. Following a literature review on the main corporate valuation methodologies, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model based on the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) and using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) was identified as the most appropriate methodology for the company’s valuation. Additionally, a relative valuation based on market multiples was also performed, together with sensitivity and scenario analyses. The application of the DCF method resulted in a target price of $163.92 per share, which is below the market price observed on the reference date ($196.51), leading to a SELL recommendation. The relative valuation reinforces this perspective, since the simple average of the implied share prices obtained through the different multiples was approximately $165.70 per share, suggesting that the company is overvalued relative to the selected peer group. However, the scenario analysis demonstrated that NVIDIA’s valuation is highly sensitive to growth expectations associated with the artificial intelligence market. Under the optimistic scenario, supported by management’s projections regarding the expansion of AI and data centers, the estimated share price increases significantly to $348.55. Considering the probabilities assigned to the different scenarios, a weighted average target price of approximately $246.15 per share was obtained, which is above the observed market price, implicitly leading to a BUY recommendation. It is therefore concluded that the company presents strong fundamentals and a leading strategic position within the artificial intelligence sector, although its current valuation already incorporates very high growth expectations, increasing the investment risk associated with the company.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Fluxos de Caixa Descontados Múltiplos de mercado Inteligência Artificial NVIDIA Corp Discounted Cash Flow Market Multiples Artificial Intelligence