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Abstract(s)
Existe uma extensa literatura sobre a relação existente entre o desenvolvimento do sistema financeiro e o crescimento económico. Existem argumentos para se considerar que o bom funcionamento do setor financeiro potencia o crescimento económico e esperar que o desenvolvimento deste setor gere mais crescimento económico. No entanto, também existem argumentos para considerar que o sobredimensionamento do setor financeiro possa prejudicar o crescimento económico, tendo em conta a recente crise económico-financeira de 2007-2008.
Neste sentido, a literatura empírica recente sobre a relação existente entre o desenvolvimento do setor financeiro e o crescimento económico tem investigado a eventualidade do perfil dessa relação ser não linear.
Este estudo contribui para esta literatura, analisando a natureza desta relação em países que se encontram entre os mais pobres como são os países da África Subsaariana. Com base numa amostra de 44 países da África Subsaariana, no período 1980-2015, estimou-se um modelo com dados em painel, considerando a hipótese da relação entre o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro e o crescimento económico ser não linear. Os resultados das estimações sugerem que o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro, medido quer pelo peso do crédito doméstico ao setor privado no PIB quer pelo peso da moeda em sentido lato no PIB, é positivo para o crescimento económico até um certo limiar e negativo, ultrapassado esse limiar. Os resultados empíricos sugerem então a existência de uma relação em U-invertido entre o desenvolvimento financeiro e o crescimento económico, mesmo para os países da África Subsaariana.
There is a vast literature on the effect of financial development on economic growth. There are arguments for considering that a well-functioning financial system is growth-enhancing and to expect that more finance lead to more growth. However, there are also arguments for considering that too much finance can harm economic growth, relying in the recent 2007-2008 global crisis. Therefore, recent empirical literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth investigates whether this relationship is non-linear. This study contributes to this literature, by investigating the nature of this relationship in countries that are among the poorest countries, the Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a sample of 44 countries from Sub-Saharan Africa, for the period 1980-2015, we estimate a panel data model, allowing for a non-linear relationship between the level of financial development and economic growth. The estimation results suggest that the level of financial development, measured either by the domestic credit to private sector relative to GDP or by broad money relative to GDP, is good for economic growth only up to a point, after which it becomes harmful. Therefore, our empirical results confirm that the financial sector size exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on economic growth, even for Sub-Saharan African countries.
There is a vast literature on the effect of financial development on economic growth. There are arguments for considering that a well-functioning financial system is growth-enhancing and to expect that more finance lead to more growth. However, there are also arguments for considering that too much finance can harm economic growth, relying in the recent 2007-2008 global crisis. Therefore, recent empirical literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth investigates whether this relationship is non-linear. This study contributes to this literature, by investigating the nature of this relationship in countries that are among the poorest countries, the Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a sample of 44 countries from Sub-Saharan Africa, for the period 1980-2015, we estimate a panel data model, allowing for a non-linear relationship between the level of financial development and economic growth. The estimation results suggest that the level of financial development, measured either by the domestic credit to private sector relative to GDP or by broad money relative to GDP, is good for economic growth only up to a point, after which it becomes harmful. Therefore, our empirical results confirm that the financial sector size exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on economic growth, even for Sub-Saharan African countries.
Description
Keywords
Crescimento económico Desenvolvimento financeiro Dados em painel África Subsaariana Sub-Saharan Africa Panel data Economic growth Financial development