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Abstract(s)
As finanças racionais encontram-se bem estruturadas e fundamentadas em princípios, teorias e modelos largamente aceites, embora tenham surgido estudiosos que apontam para a necessidade de um termo de finanças mais próximo da realidade. Atualmente, o termo finanças não pode ser dissociado da psicologia e da sociologia inerentes à tomada de decisões.
Para os fundadores do pensamento económico o homem estava longe de ser um ente totalmente racional e orientado, por natureza, em função de objetivos de maximização. Esta conceção levou Kahneman e Tversky a desenvolver o estudo “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”, a partir do qual apresentam vários argumentos e efeitos que colocam em causa a eficácia e a eficiência do conceito de finanças racionais e todas as teorias que a suportam.
Atendendo à problemática, o principal objetivo desta dissertação é compreender os vieses que influenciam a tomada de decisões em ambientes de risco e incerteza, à luz da teoria da perspetiva, e a relação com a confiança dos indivíduos.
Em primeiro lugar, pretende-se comparar os resultados obtidos nesta dissertação com os de Kahneman e Tversky, em 1979. Adicionalmente, com recurso ao teste de refelexão cognitiva (CRT), pretende-se verificar se os enviesamentos comportamentais estão relacionados com as habilidades cognitivas. Finalmente, atendendo à importância e atualidade do conceito de sobre confiança, propõem-se questões para a sua mensuração com o intuito de comparar os vários segmentos de inquiridos e perceber o perfil que a espelha. Para isso, a amostra de inquiridos será segmentada por género, faixa etária, estudante ou não, trader profissional ou não, investidor ocasional ou não e conhecedor ou não das finanças comportamentais, com o intuito de comparar os diferentes resultados.
Por fim, verifica-se que indivíduos com características diferentes, escolhem a mesma opção devido à sub confiança inerente ao processo de tomada de decisão.
Rational finance is well structured and based on widely accepted principles, theories and models, however, scholars started to point the need for a term of finance closer to reality. Currently, the term finance cannot be dissociated from psychology and sociology inherent to decision making. For the founders of economic thought, man was far from being a totally rational being and oriented, by nature, towards maximizing objectives. This conception led Kahneman and Tversky to produce the study called “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”, from which they present several arguments and effects that call into question the effectiveness and efficiency of the concept of rational finance and all the theories that support it. Taking the problem into account, the main objective of this dissertation is to understand the biases that influence decision-making in environments of risk and uncertainty, according to prospect theory and the relationship with individuals’ trust. First of all, we intend to compare the results obtained in this study with those of Kahneman and Tversky, in 1979. Additionally, using the cognitive reflection test (CRT), it is expected to verify whether behavioral biases are related to cognitive abilities. Finally, due to the importance and current relevance of the concept of overconfidence, we will propose questions for its measurement, with the aim of comparing the various segments of respondents and understanding the profile that reflects it. In this regard, the sample of respondents will be segmented by gender, age group, students or not, professional trader or not, occasional investor or not and knowledgeable or not in behavioral finance, in order to compare the different results. Finally, it appears that individuals with different characteristics choose the same option due to the underconfidence involved in the decision making process.
Rational finance is well structured and based on widely accepted principles, theories and models, however, scholars started to point the need for a term of finance closer to reality. Currently, the term finance cannot be dissociated from psychology and sociology inherent to decision making. For the founders of economic thought, man was far from being a totally rational being and oriented, by nature, towards maximizing objectives. This conception led Kahneman and Tversky to produce the study called “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk”, from which they present several arguments and effects that call into question the effectiveness and efficiency of the concept of rational finance and all the theories that support it. Taking the problem into account, the main objective of this dissertation is to understand the biases that influence decision-making in environments of risk and uncertainty, according to prospect theory and the relationship with individuals’ trust. First of all, we intend to compare the results obtained in this study with those of Kahneman and Tversky, in 1979. Additionally, using the cognitive reflection test (CRT), it is expected to verify whether behavioral biases are related to cognitive abilities. Finally, due to the importance and current relevance of the concept of overconfidence, we will propose questions for its measurement, with the aim of comparing the various segments of respondents and understanding the profile that reflects it. In this regard, the sample of respondents will be segmented by gender, age group, students or not, professional trader or not, occasional investor or not and knowledgeable or not in behavioral finance, in order to compare the different results. Finally, it appears that individuals with different characteristics choose the same option due to the underconfidence involved in the decision making process.
Description
Keywords
Finanças tradicionais Finanças comportamentais Teoria da utilidade esperada Teoria da perspetiva Teste de reflexão cognitiva Sobre confiança Traditional finance Overconfidence Behavioral finance Cognitive reflection test Expected utility theory Prospect theory