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Desenvolvimento de um modelo matemático para correlacionar o crescimento económico, políticas económicas, políticas ambientais, bem-estar social e nível educacional
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Abstract(s)
A problemática ambiental ocupa atualmente uma posição central nas agendas políticas, académicas e sociais, reflendo uma urgente preocupação na mitigação dos impactos associados ao crescimento económico, à industrialização e às mudanças nos padrões de consumo, que se refletem na produção de resíduos. Este é um dos maiores desafios à sustentabilidade, principalmente pela pressão que exerce sobre os sistemas de gestão e tratamento, degradação ambiental, independentemente do país que estivermos a falar, mais ou menos desenvolvido. Neste enquadramento, a presente dissertação propõe desenvolver um modelo matemático
capaz de correlacionar variáveis determinantes, como o crescimento económico, as políticas económicas e ambientais, o bem-estar social e o nível educacional da população — com os níveis de resíduos produzidos. Para o efeito, foi elaborado um estudo comparativo envolvendo nove países com realidades sobretudo diferenciadas, ao longo de um período temporal de dez anos (2014-2024). A análise recorreu a métodos estatisticos de correlação e a modelos de regressão linear simples e múltipla, de modo a identificar relações significativas e a validar a robustez das associações encontradas. Os resultados obtidos permitem aprofundar o conhecimento sobre os fatores estruturais que influenciam a geração de resíduos e fornecem uma base empírica para a
formulação de políticas públicas mais eficazes no domínio da sustentabilidade. A investigação destaca ainda a relevância do investimento em educação, da promoção do bem-estar social e da adoção de políticas ambientais integradas como mecanismos essenciais para a redução da produção de resíduos e para a transição para uma economia mais circular e sustentável.
Environmental sustainability has become one of the most pressing universal challenges of the 21st c entury, as societies across t he g lobe s truggle to b alance e conomic g rowth, s ocial w ellbeing, and environmental preservation. Among the most critical issues is the increasing generation of solid waste, which is intrinsically linked to industrialization, population growth, rising consumption levels, and uneven access to education and social equity. Understanding the determinants of waste generation and their interrelationships is therefore essential to design effective strategies for sustainable development. This study develops a mathematical modelling framework to analyze the correlation between economic, social, educational, and environmental indicators and their influence on waste production. Data were collected for nine countries, covering a ten-year period (2014-2024), and subjected to statistical tests, including simple and multiple linear regressions, in order to identify the most significant variables affecting waste generation. Different models were constructed and validated under multiple scenarios, providing comparative insights into national dynamics and cross-country paterns. The findings reveal that the absence of consistent and reliable statistical data remains a major barrier to policy design, as it limits both the assessment of current waste management practices and the planning of future strategies. Nevertheless, the models developed demonstrate the potential of integrating multidisciplinary indicators into predictive frameworks for waste management. This research highlights the urge for international cooperation in the systematic collection and sharing of statistical data. Ultimately, the study underscores that advancing scientific knowledge in this field is a key step towards promoting effective, equitable, and sustainable solutions to one of humanity’s most pressing global challenges.
Environmental sustainability has become one of the most pressing universal challenges of the 21st c entury, as societies across t he g lobe s truggle to b alance e conomic g rowth, s ocial w ellbeing, and environmental preservation. Among the most critical issues is the increasing generation of solid waste, which is intrinsically linked to industrialization, population growth, rising consumption levels, and uneven access to education and social equity. Understanding the determinants of waste generation and their interrelationships is therefore essential to design effective strategies for sustainable development. This study develops a mathematical modelling framework to analyze the correlation between economic, social, educational, and environmental indicators and their influence on waste production. Data were collected for nine countries, covering a ten-year period (2014-2024), and subjected to statistical tests, including simple and multiple linear regressions, in order to identify the most significant variables affecting waste generation. Different models were constructed and validated under multiple scenarios, providing comparative insights into national dynamics and cross-country paterns. The findings reveal that the absence of consistent and reliable statistical data remains a major barrier to policy design, as it limits both the assessment of current waste management practices and the planning of future strategies. Nevertheless, the models developed demonstrate the potential of integrating multidisciplinary indicators into predictive frameworks for waste management. This research highlights the urge for international cooperation in the systematic collection and sharing of statistical data. Ultimately, the study underscores that advancing scientific knowledge in this field is a key step towards promoting effective, equitable, and sustainable solutions to one of humanity’s most pressing global challenges.
Description
Keywords
Sustainability waste management recycling environmental impact statistical modelling socioeconomic indicators Sustentabilidade Produção de resíduos Reciclagem Impacto ambiental Modelos estatisticos Indicadores socioeconómicos