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A gestão de risco dos projetos permite identificar, analisar e controlar as ameaças associadas às empresas. Não obstante do recente crescimento e importância, verifica-se a existência de lacunas e falhas que precisam de ser colmatadas para as empresas poderem evoluir e atingir os seus objetivos. Apesar de existirem normas para a gestão do risco como a ISO 31000 e guias como o PMBOK® ainda é frequente os projetos apresentaram problemas em cumprir o âmbito, prazo, custo e qualidade. Para evitar estes problemas as organizações devem adotar abordagens capazes de desenvolver vantagens competitivas e competências de modo a prever mudanças, reagir às mesmas de forma eficiente e realinhar com a nova realidade da área. Surge então a necessidade de utilizar técnicas que permitam flexibilidade e melhor desempenho organizacional, minimizando o risco e aumentando a performance. A pergunta de investigação desta dissertação é: “Qual o grau da aplicabilidade da técnica de opções reais para avaliação e monitorização de riscos nos projetos?”. Da revisão da literatura de origem científica e profissional, através de uma metodologia de investigação abdutiva, foi possível verificar que as opções reais podem ser uma técnica capaz de melhorar o desempenho das organizações. Identificou-se que as opções reais possibilitam o controlo e monitorização dos projetos tanto na vertente financeira, através da teoria de opções reais, como de uma forma mais abrangente através de real options reasoning, existindo níveis de desenvolvimento e implantação diversos.
Estas técnicas com foco em flexibilidade e proveito da incerteza, quando comparadas a abordagens clássicas, estão mais alinhadas com o dinamismo atual. Da mesma revisão constatou-se que há um vazio no que toca à transmissão do conhecimento teórico para a colocação em prática nas organizações. No decorrer deste estudo pretendeu-se identificar quais os fatores que potenciam e quais os que inibem o uso de opções reais. É proposta uma framework aplicável a toda a organização de forma a atenuar as dificuldades identificadas e
aumentar o desempenho da mesma, e que tem como finalidade fornecer uma nova abordagem que permite que o gestor tenha um papel ativo integrando a flexibilidade na avaliação e monitorização do projeto. De maneira a cumprir esse propósito, optou-se por dividir a mesma em quatro fases, sendo que a primeira se aplica fora do projeto, assumindo um papel de etapa preparatória e as outras três acompanham as cinco fases do ciclo de vida do projeto. Os resultados esperados do uso desta ferramenta são a melhoria dos projetos a escolher e da gestão, potenciamento de oportunidades, diminuição de perdas, aumento de benefícios e
maior facilidade e agilidade na fase de controlo. Do mesmo modo é expectável que o uso permita selecionar os projetos alinhados com a estratégia, crie uma forma eficaz de medir o impacto das decisões tomadas e auxilie a criar uma memória que persista como um pilar para projetos futuros.
Project risk management allows for identifying, analysing, and controlling threats associated with company operations. Despite its recent growth and importance, there are still gaps and shortcomings that need to be addressed by the companies to evolve and achieve their objectives. Despite risk management standards such as ISO31000 and guides such as the PMBOK®, projects often have problems meeting their scope, deadline, cost and quality. To avoid these problems, organizations must adopt approaches capable of developing competitive advantages and skills to anticipate changes, react to them efficiently and realign with the new reality of the field. Therefore, techniques that allow flexibility and better organizational performance are needed, minimizing risk and increasing performance. The research question in this thesis is: “How suitable is the real options approach for assessing and monitoring risks in projects?" From the review of scientific and professional literature, using an abductive research methodology, it was possible to verify that real options can be a technique capable of improving the performance of organizations. It was identified that real options make it possible to control and monitor projects financially through the real options theory, and more comprehensively through real options reasoning, with varying levels of development and implementation. Compared to classic approaches, these techniques, which focus on flexibility and taking advantage of uncertainty, are more in line with current dynamism. The same review found that there is a gap when it comes to transmitting theoretical knowledge and putting it into practice in organizations. During this study, the intention was to identify which factors enhance and which inhibit the use of real options. A framework applicable to the entire organization is proposed to mitigate the difficulties identified and increase its performance. It also provides a new approach that allows the manager to play an active role by integrating flexibility into the evaluation and monitoring of the project. To fulfil this goal, it was decided to divide the tool into four phases, the first of which is applied outside the project and plays the role of a preparatory stage, while the other three go along the five phases of the project's life cycle. The expected results of using this tool are improved project selection and management, enhanced opportunities, fewer losses, increased benefits and easier and more agile control. It is also expected that its use will enable the selection of projects in line with the strategy, create an effective way of measuring the impact of the decisions made, and help create a memory that persists as a foundation for future projects.
Project risk management allows for identifying, analysing, and controlling threats associated with company operations. Despite its recent growth and importance, there are still gaps and shortcomings that need to be addressed by the companies to evolve and achieve their objectives. Despite risk management standards such as ISO31000 and guides such as the PMBOK®, projects often have problems meeting their scope, deadline, cost and quality. To avoid these problems, organizations must adopt approaches capable of developing competitive advantages and skills to anticipate changes, react to them efficiently and realign with the new reality of the field. Therefore, techniques that allow flexibility and better organizational performance are needed, minimizing risk and increasing performance. The research question in this thesis is: “How suitable is the real options approach for assessing and monitoring risks in projects?" From the review of scientific and professional literature, using an abductive research methodology, it was possible to verify that real options can be a technique capable of improving the performance of organizations. It was identified that real options make it possible to control and monitor projects financially through the real options theory, and more comprehensively through real options reasoning, with varying levels of development and implementation. Compared to classic approaches, these techniques, which focus on flexibility and taking advantage of uncertainty, are more in line with current dynamism. The same review found that there is a gap when it comes to transmitting theoretical knowledge and putting it into practice in organizations. During this study, the intention was to identify which factors enhance and which inhibit the use of real options. A framework applicable to the entire organization is proposed to mitigate the difficulties identified and increase its performance. It also provides a new approach that allows the manager to play an active role by integrating flexibility into the evaluation and monitoring of the project. To fulfil this goal, it was decided to divide the tool into four phases, the first of which is applied outside the project and plays the role of a preparatory stage, while the other three go along the five phases of the project's life cycle. The expected results of using this tool are improved project selection and management, enhanced opportunities, fewer losses, increased benefits and easier and more agile control. It is also expected that its use will enable the selection of projects in line with the strategy, create an effective way of measuring the impact of the decisions made, and help create a memory that persists as a foundation for future projects.
Description
Keywords
Project Management Risk Management Uncertainty Real Options Gestão de projetos Gestão de risco Incerteza Opções reais