| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.24 MB | Adobe PDF |
Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Mediante as mudanças climáticas, sejam elas causadas de forma natural ou em decorrência das ações antrópicas, têm-se observado alterações no comportamento do ciclo hidrológico, assim como dos recursos naturais capazes de prover energia nas suas mais diferentes formas. Desse modo, o objetivo deste estudo consiste em analisar o nexus existente entre clima, água e energia, com enfoque nos países Portugal e Brasil. Para tanto, foram realizados testes e análises que demonstram a disponibilidade eólica sazonal para os dezoito Distritos de Portugal Continental, bem como a disponibilidade hídrica e hidrelétrica para a Bacia do Rio São Francisco Estendido (BRSFE) no Brasil. As análises realizadas para Portugal foram: a decomposição dos ventos em componentes zonal e meridional (para as alturas de 10 m e 80 m); Rosa dos Ventos, Frequência Acumulada e Distribuição de Weibull (para a altura de 80 m). Para a BRSFE no Brasil, foram realizadas as seguintes análises: aplicação de métodos clássicos como Média Móvel, Regressão Linear e teste de Mann-Kendall Sen em dados de precipitação e vazão natural; geração do espectro de ondeletas globais e de potência (Wavelets) para anomalias na vazão natural e em índices climáticos atuantes; formulação de curvas de duração de frequência das vazões naturais, suas respectivas vazões de garantia Q90, e a simulação das garantias de disponibilidade de água para usuários consuntivos; cálculo da energia hidrelétrica gerada em usinas inseridas na região em estudo. De forma conjunta, também foi feita uma análise sobre as perspectivas energéticas atuais e futuras para Portugal e Brasil, com projeções de demandas de consumo de água e energia, possibilidade de expansão do setor energético através das diferentes fontes renováveis, dificuldades a serem enfrentadas para atingirem seus objetivos e possíveis cooperações entre os países. Os resultados demonstram, em Portugal, ventos com maior frequência de ocorrência advindos do Sul, com velocidades que variam principalmente entre 2 m/s e 4 m/s, e com maior densidade de potência eólica na região Sul de Portugal. O Brasil, por sua vez, apresentou resultados que mostram alguma influência de fenômenos climáticos que colaboram com episódios de escassez de água e redução da geração de energia hidrelétrica para a Bacia em estudo. As demandas de água e energia deverão continuar a crescer no Brasil, enquanto que Portugal necessitará diminuir sua dependência energética de outros países, o que faz com que ambos necessitem expandir suas matrizes energéticas através de fontes renováveis. Os resultados das análises também demonstram que Portugal e Brasil possuem potencial para essa expansão, mas para isso precisarão investir em planejamento, cooperação e ações mitigatórias, no horizonte de médio e longo prazo, a fim de atingirem seus objetivos mesmo frente às incertezas futuras.
Climate changes, whether caused naturally or as a result of anthropic actions, have affected the behavior of the hydrological cycle and natural resources used for providing energy in its most different forms. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the existing nexus between climate, water, and energy, focusing on Portugal and Brazil. To do so, tests and analyses were carried out, which demonstrated the seasonal wind availability for the eighteen Districts of Mainland Portugal, as well as the water and hydroelectric availability for the São Francisco Extended River Basin (BRSFE) in Brazil. The analyses carried out for Portugal were: the decomposition of the winds into zonal and southern components (for heights of 10 m and 80 m); Compass Rose, Accumulated Frequency and Weibull Distribution (for the height of 80 m). For BRSFE in Brazil, the following analyzes were carried out: application of classic methods such as Moving Average, Linear Regression and Mann-Kendall Sen test on rainfall and natural flow data; generation of the spectrum of global and power wavelets for anomalies in the natural flow and in active climatic indexes; formulation of frequency duration curves for natural flows, their respective Q90 guarantee flows, and the simulation of water availability guarantees for consumptive users; calculation of hydroelectric energy generated in plants located in the region under study. An analysis was also made of the current and future energy prospects for Portugal and Brazil, with projections of water and energy consumption demands, the possibility of expanding the energy sector through different renewable sources, difficulties to be faced in achieving its objectives and possible cooperation between countries. The results show, in Portugal, winds with a higher frequency of occurrence coming from the South, with speeds that vary mainly between 2 m / s and 4 m / s, and with a higher density of wind power in the South of Portugal. Brazil, in turn, showed results that show some influence of climatic phenomena that collaborate with episodes of water scarcity and reduction of hydroelectric energy generation for the Basin under study. Demand for water and energy is expected to continue to grow in Brazil, while Portugal will need to decrease its energy dependence on other countries, which means that both need to expand their energy matrices through renewable sources. The results of the analyzes also show that Portugal and Brazil have the potential for this expansion, but for that they will need to invest in planning, cooperation and mitigating actions, in the medium and long term, in order to achieve their goals even in the face of future uncertainties.
Climate changes, whether caused naturally or as a result of anthropic actions, have affected the behavior of the hydrological cycle and natural resources used for providing energy in its most different forms. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the existing nexus between climate, water, and energy, focusing on Portugal and Brazil. To do so, tests and analyses were carried out, which demonstrated the seasonal wind availability for the eighteen Districts of Mainland Portugal, as well as the water and hydroelectric availability for the São Francisco Extended River Basin (BRSFE) in Brazil. The analyses carried out for Portugal were: the decomposition of the winds into zonal and southern components (for heights of 10 m and 80 m); Compass Rose, Accumulated Frequency and Weibull Distribution (for the height of 80 m). For BRSFE in Brazil, the following analyzes were carried out: application of classic methods such as Moving Average, Linear Regression and Mann-Kendall Sen test on rainfall and natural flow data; generation of the spectrum of global and power wavelets for anomalies in the natural flow and in active climatic indexes; formulation of frequency duration curves for natural flows, their respective Q90 guarantee flows, and the simulation of water availability guarantees for consumptive users; calculation of hydroelectric energy generated in plants located in the region under study. An analysis was also made of the current and future energy prospects for Portugal and Brazil, with projections of water and energy consumption demands, the possibility of expanding the energy sector through different renewable sources, difficulties to be faced in achieving its objectives and possible cooperation between countries. The results show, in Portugal, winds with a higher frequency of occurrence coming from the South, with speeds that vary mainly between 2 m / s and 4 m / s, and with a higher density of wind power in the South of Portugal. Brazil, in turn, showed results that show some influence of climatic phenomena that collaborate with episodes of water scarcity and reduction of hydroelectric energy generation for the Basin under study. Demand for water and energy is expected to continue to grow in Brazil, while Portugal will need to decrease its energy dependence on other countries, which means that both need to expand their energy matrices through renewable sources. The results of the analyzes also show that Portugal and Brazil have the potential for this expansion, but for that they will need to invest in planning, cooperation and mitigating actions, in the medium and long term, in order to achieve their goals even in the face of future uncertainties.
Description
Keywords
Clima Água Vento Energia Portugal Brasil Climate Water Wind Energy Brazil