Browsing by Author "Ukar, Olatz"
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- Price Forecasting and Validation in the Spanish Electricity Market using Forecasts as Input DataPublication . Ortiz, María; Ukar, Olatz; Azevedo, Filipe; Múgica, ArantzaThe electricity sector has been subjected to major changes in the last few years. Previously, there existed a regulated system where electric companies could know beforehand the amount of energy each generator would produce, hence basing their largely operational strategy on cost minimization in order to increase their profits. In Spain, from 1988 till 1997, electricity prices were established by the ‘Marco Legal Estable’ – Stable Legal Framework –, where the Ministry of Industry and Energy acknowledged the existence of certain generation costs related to each type of technology. It was an industrial sector with no actual competition and therefore, with very few controllable risks. In the aftermath of the electricity market liberalization competition and uncertainty arose. Electricity spot prices became highly volatile due to the specific characteristics of electricity as a commodity. Long-term contracts allowed for hedge funds to act against price fluctuation in the electricity market. As a consequence, developing an accurate electricity price forecasting model is an extremely difficult task for electricity market agents. This work aims to propose a methodology to improve the limitations of those methodologies just using historical data to forecast electricity prices. In this manner, and in order to gain access to more recent data, instead of using natural gas prices and electricity load historical data, a regression model to forecast the evolution of natural gas prices, and a model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) to forecast electricity loads, are proposed. The results of these models are used as input for an electricity price forecast model. Finally, and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, several study cases applied to the Spanish market, using real price data, are presented.
- Study of Factors Affecting the Long-term Spanish Electricity Price Formation and Corresponding Validation Using Long-term Forecast ModelsPublication . Ortiz, Maria; Ukar, Olatz; Azevedo, Filipe; Barrio, RubenThe deregulation of electricity markets has resulted on a competitive sector. The impossibility to store energy in large scale together with the constant balance between supply and demand is at the origin of high volatility of market clearing prices. The electricity market players use long-term contracts to practice the hedge against the price risk. The success of those contracts is directly related on the accuracy of long-term price forecast. This paper presents a study of the factors that affects long-term Spanish electricity price formation makes use of a neural network model applied to long-term forecast to validate that study. The use of correct input variables is essential for a forecast accurate. It is presented a case study with real data and the results are compared and discussed in detail.